Boris Johnson is still haunted by the spectre of Nigel Farage

“The small boat migrants are causing my voters more grief than sleaze, rail in the north and social care,” one of the many disgruntled Conservative MPs told me. I was surprised: he doesn’t represent a seat on the south coast, but in Yorkshire.

Even before the tragedy in which 17 men, seven women and three children lost their lives, the crisis in the Channel was a political one for Boris Johnson. Focus groups and polling for the Tories shows the issue has risen sharply up the list of people’s concerns. Although the UK has fewer applications for asylum than Germany, Spain, France and Greece, the small boats are highly visible – on news bulletins and now the front pages – unlike previous routes such as migrants hiding in lorries.

The issue is toxic for Johnson, and not merely because he has broken his key pledge in the 2016 Brexit referendum to “take back control” of UK borders. He has compounded his problem by over-promising and under-delivering (again). Last week he told newbie Tory MPs at a No 10 reception he would “stop the boats”.

Similarly, Priti Patel has raised great expectations she has woefully failed to fulfil. In 2019, the new home secretary promised the crossings would be “an infrequent phenomenon” by the following spring. The number of people arriving in the UK has risen from 1,900 to 25,700 a year since. Earlier this month she won more headlines when she and her French counterpart Gerald Darmanin promised to stop “100 per cent of crossings”. In a Commons statement on this week’s disaster, Patel belatedly took a more realistic stance, admitting there is “no quick fix”.

Patel is lashing out and blaming everyone else – the French, the EU, the UK’s Border Force, the civil service and local authorities. She is now fighting to save her cabinet job; Johnson’s dim view of her performance on this issue was clear when he put Cabinet Office minister Steve Barclay in charge of a cross-government initiative.

Some Home Office officials tell me Patel has been “more interested in headlines about being ‘tough’ than finding plausible solutions”. The same criticism applies to Johnson. His attempt to make common cause with France backfired when he upset Emmanuel Macron by making his proposals public.

Patel was then uninvited to a meeting in Calais on Sunday with her French and other European opposite numbers. It was a sign of how far London and Paris have driven themselves apart amid post-Brexit tensions. The French response was petulant, but Johnson’s letter misjudged the mood, fuelling French suspicions that he is playing to the public gallery – though Macron is just as guilty of doing that.

The latest rift will increase the Tory pressure on Johnson to “hang tough.” The tragedy should have tempered such demands, but the opposite is the case. Tory MPs are demanding a tougher approach towards asylum-seekers – by diluting the Human Rights Act’s “right to family life” provision, turning back small boats in the Channel and setting up the offshore processing centres ministers have promised. Though turning back boats is thankfully a non-runner now, Patel told hardliners in the Commons the government is looking to go further than her draconian Nationality and Borders Bill. Ministers won’t lose too much sleep if the Bill is delayed by the House of Lords; they think this will give them a dividing line with Labour, as well as unelected peers.

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The Tory demands are restricting Johnson’s room for manoeuvre as he tries to find common ground with France and other EU countries – which is, of course, the only way to solve the crisis. He is in a weaker position to resist his noisy backbenchers after his torrid past three weeks prompted speculation in Toryland about how long he will last as prime minister.

The Tories, Johnson included, are haunted by the spectre of Nigel Farage because – surprise, surprise – he is hinting he might make yet another comeback to exploit the issue. His allies in the Reform Party are at 6 per cent in the opinion polls after winning over Tory supporters. Some senior Tories warn privately that a “perfect storm” is driving away right-leaning voters – the migrants crisis, the tax rises, inflation, the “net zero” strategy and lingering resentment over Covid lockdowns. “We are starting to look unconservative,” one former minister complained.

That is a dangerous narrative for Johnson. It threatens to demolish a key plank of his electoral strategy: never be outflanked from the right. A new party and/or the Reform Party might not win Commons seats but could still deprive the Tories of victory in many marginals. Sadly, this threat will encourage Johnson to play it tough rather than adopt the conciliatory approach needed to prevent more lives being lost in the Channel.