Hear me out – Andy Burnham is Labour’s Boris Johnson

What or who comes to mind when you think of Andy Burnham? Do you think of the north of England? “Twenty-four hours to save the NHS”? Biscuits and gravy, perhaps? How about Boris Johnson?

It may not be the most obvious comparison, as the two men have little in common, but there are some similarities worth discussing. Last week, a poll run by Sky News found that 69 per cent of Labour members believe that the mayor of Greater Manchester would be a better leader than Keir Starmer.

On the same day, the New Statesman published a long interview with him, in which he said he wouldn’t rule out returning to Westminster and running for leader again. It felt like the logical conclusion of something that had been a long time coming. Burnham had run for leader twice as an MP and lost both times, but his popularity has been growing steadily since he left the Commons.

His performance as mayor during the toughest days of the pandemic was widely applauded, and he does appear to have matured as a politician. It is interesting because he often used to say that he found the culture of the House of Commons suffocating, and he would always be lightly mocked for it. It sounded like whining, and felt like the bitterness of a sore loser – but what if he was right, and needed to leave the bubble to prove himself?

This is where Boris Johnson comes in. Though he had been an MP for seven years before becoming London mayor, his stint in City Hall is (perhaps ironically) what put him on the map on a more national level. An eccentric and ineffective member of parliament, he thrived – or at least appeared to thrive – once he left the green benches.

Instead of rising through the ranks of his party, step by step, he was able to build his profile and gain support within the membership on his own terms. He was elected as an MP again in 2015 and, well, you know the rest.

Though Burnham spent many years on the front bench when he was in the Commons, it clearly was not enough to earn him the top spot. He was frequently ribbed for his constant flip-flopping and his inability to decide how he wanted to portray himself. Now he stands alone as King in the North, it is no longer an issue. Could he do a Boris and triumphantly return to Westminster to save his party from ruin? It is too early to say, but the mere fact that it is a possibility points to quite a fundamental shift in British politics.

Because politicians old and new have the possibility now to run as metro mayors in England, parliament no longer has to be the place in which future leaders are made. Instead, we may well be headed towards a political landscape similar to France’s, in which people gain power and popularity in their part of the country before setting their sights on the Elysee.

It could be a good thing; after all, the House of Commons is famously an odd place that distorts the people it absorbs. Creating a wider talent pool by allowing people to come up through regional politics could also neutralise the groupthink of the Westminster bubble, at least to an extent.

To think about it cynically, it could even help the combined local authorities that have mayors who are directly elected; if the post becomes a job interview for a national role, those who have it will want to do well.

There is one hiccup, however. Britain isn’t France, and a British prime minister has little in common with a French president. Though the latter can largely do as they please, the former must have the support of their benches both to get elected and then to run an effective premiership.

Johnson managed it by succeeding a weak prime minister during some of the most chaotic times the Commons has ever witnessed, then winning an election in a landslide. That is not an easily replicable strategy. What would happen if Burnham were to come back into parliament at the next election? The members may want him, but it is not clear that he would have the support of his fellow MPs.

Similarly, Ben Houchen has been doing very well for the Conservatives as Tees Valley mayor, but how welcome would he be in parliament? What if being an effective and well-liked MP and a popular metro mayor require different skill-sets? How kindly would MPs take to politicians swanning into their world and assuming they do not need to climb the greasy pole?

Andy Burnham is not Boris Johnson, but he clearly hopes to have a similar journey. If he manages it, others may well decide to try and follow suit. Can Westminster handle it?