A shockwave in Virginia gubernatorial election scares Democrats

Democrats are likely in a state of shock not just by the fact that Republican Glenn Youngkin won in Virginia but by how resoundingly he thumped former Democratic Gov Terry McAuliffe on Tuesday evening.

Mr Youngkin, a businessman and former co-chief executive at the Carlyle Group, made significant inroads in the suburbs of Northern Virginia, which essentially serve as an extension of Washington, DC and where Joe Biden won resoundingly just last year.

In Loudoun County, Republicans zeroed in heavily on opposing the teaching of “critical race theory”, a niche legal thought that has since become a catch-all for Republicans to describe most teaching about racial inequalities.

One ad featured the mother of a future GOP operative decrying the fact her son had to read Toni Morrison’s Beloved and calling on parents to have more of a say in their children’s education.

The gamble seemed to pay off. In 2020, Mr Biden won Loudoun County, a largely white county, with 61.9 per cent of the vote whereas Mr McAuliffe only won 55 percent of the vote as of Wednesday morning. In neighbouring Fairfax County, Mr Youngkin added about six points to Donald Trump’s 28.4 per cent loss.

Outside of Northern Virginia, Mr McAuliffe ran significantly behind Mr Biden. The former Democratic National Committee chairman and Clinton money man only won Danville City with 53.4 per cent of the vote, down roughly 7 points from Democrats’ 2020. Mr Youngkin also flipped Chesapeake City and Virginia Beach City in the southeastern part of the city.

The former president thanked his base for turning out for Mr Youngkin, but the GOP nominee needed to – and did – figure out how to win people beyond the MAGA faithful. Whereas Mr Trump showed in 2020 how Republicans could make inroads with people of colour, particularly with Latinos and Asian Americans, Virginia shows how well Republicans can perform when Mr Trump isn’t at the top of the ticket.

The loss is also likely to scare Democrats a few miles over in Washington. Moderate Democrats will likely blame progressive Democrats in the House for not passing the bipartisan infrastructure bill that the Senate passed earlier this year.

Democrats have been optimistic about potentially both the bipartisan bill and a larger social spending bill that includes everything from child care, home care and services for elderly people and people with disabilities, an expanded child tax credit and provisions to combat climate change.

House progressives have insisted that one not pass without the other and House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries said on Tuesday that he wanted an ironclad commitment from every Senate Democrat to pass the social spending bill.

They could argue that such a move would have picked up Mr Biden’s lagging approval ratings, which dropped after the chaotic exit from Afghanistan, and showed Democrats could get along with Republicans and pass significant legislation.

Meanwhile, progressive Democrats will likely say that Democrats got their ideal candidate, a moderate former governor and businessman who literally went to go raise money shortly after his wife gave birth to their son, who focused almost exclusively on tying his Republican opponent to Mr Trump.

The move is also likely a blow to Mr Biden, who campaigned for Mr McAuliffe and won Virginia by 10 points last year. Mr Biden returned early on Wednesday evening after a trip to Europe for the G20 summit followed by Glasgow for the COP26 conference.