How the war in Ukraine is affecting Republican primaries

Republicans hitting their opponents for being weak on Russia is as old as the Cold War. But Russia’s assault on Ukraine and the pro-Trump right’s friendly rhetoric toward Russia means Republicans are not just attacking Democrats: they are attacking other Republicans as weak on Russia.

In Ohio’s Senate race to replace retiring Republican Sen Rob Portman has become a focal point. Republican candidate JD Vance said: “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another” and added that “I’m sick of Joe Biden focusing on the border of a country I don’t care about while he lets the border of his own country become a total war zone.”

Later, ahead of Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine Mr Vance released a statement calling it “a corrupt nation run by oligarchs, that is as close to a democracy in 2022 as Afghanistan was when Joe Biden handed it over to the Taliban in 2021.”

But Ohio has large pockets of Ukrainian-Americans, particularly in towns like the Cleveland suburb of Parma. Jane Timken, the former chairwoman of the Ohio GOP, responded in kind by highlighting the population.

“I know you don't spend much time in Ohio, but this election is about representing all of Ohio, including the 80,000+ Ukrainian-Americans – many who are conservative – and believe in strength from their leaders, not indifference,” she tweeted in response to his statement.

Ohio’s GOP primary – like many others nationwide – has become a race to see who can be the most like former president Donald Trump, who won the state but has yet to endorse. In turn, Ms Timken also framed her support in terms of the former president’s foreign policy, despite the fact that he was impeached in 2019 for trying to use military aid for Ukraine to get President Volodymyr Zelensky to dig up dirt on Mr Biden’s son Hunter.

“America First means peace through strength. President Trump proved for four years that we can have a secure Southern Border AND stand up to our enemies,” she said. “While Biden failed at both, I won't. Ohioans want a Senator that can walk, chew gum & put America First all at the same time.”

Victoria Coates, a former member of the National Security Council during the Trump administration who advised Sen Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign, said that right now in her home state of Pennsylvania the two main candidates– former TV host Dr Mehmet Oz and David McCormick – are hitting each other on China. But foreign policy is shifting in a way she did not expect.

“It is a bipartisan push on the Congress to toughen on Ukraine means that’s what they’re hearing from their constituents from both,” she said. Similarly, she said that speaking out against or criticising Ukraine will not seem like a winning message.

“They pretty much agree on Ukraine. It’s just very hard for me to see opposition to at least expressing support for Ukraine is going to win you a statewide race,” she told The Independent. She noted how the crisis is also breaking through into the mainstream.

“One piece of evidence that is anecdotal, is that our 18-year-son, who is not political person, is a huge Zelensky fan,” she said.

Republicans are also attacking each other on Russia in North Carolina’s primary to replace retiring Sen Richard Burr. Mr Trump endorsed Rep Ted Budd instead of former Gov Pat McCrory. But last week, Mr McCrory released an advertisement hitting Mr Budd for his stance on Russia and his remarks about Mr Putin.

“These are serious times and we need serious Senators,” Mr McCrory says in the ad. “I don’t compliment our enemies. I stand for truth and freedom.”

In response, Mr Budd’s campaign spokesman Jonathan Felts compared defended Mr McCrory, who lost his bid for reelection in 2016, to Mr Biden.

“Ted Budd presented a level-headed assessment of a foreign crisis, something you would expect from a US Senator, because he knows these are serious times that require strength and substance, not the empty soundbites preferred by career politicians like Biden and McCrory,” he said.

While some North Carolina Republicans like Rep Madison Cawthorn have made waves for calling Mr Zelensky “a thug,” it is also a state with a number of military bases such as Fort Bragg and Camp Lejeune, where the US Marines are based. As a result, it has a history of electing more traditional and hawkish Republicans such as the late Jesse Helms, who was chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for years.

“Talking and acting tough on Russia is a time-honored tradition in Republican politics,” Doug Heye, a Republican strategist from North Carolina. “It’s part of why Jesse Helms won in 1984. It’s part of why he won in 1978.” He also noted how Mr Helms campaigned on giving the Panama Canal back to Panama.

“The state has changed a lot, obviously and grown tremendously,” he said. “But clearly, they feel that there’s an opportunity.”

He said the fact that the McCrory campaign made it one of its first ads shows he sees an opportunity.

“The timing of this is also interesting because obviously this is a topic that is being discussed all-day, every day,” he said. “It’s also happening at a time when people are starting to pay more attention to primaries. So it’s obviously unclear yet the effect that it will have and where the broader party is, both North Carolina and nationally. But obviously they’ve done this because they think they have an opportunity.”