‘This is a fundamental right’: Abortion rights supporters gear up for 2022 midterms as Roe comes ‘under real threat’

When hundreds of activists on both sides of the abortion debate squared off in front of the Supreme Court last month, the 2022 midterms were not at the top of either faction’s agenda.

A month later as President Joe Biden’s first year in office comes to a close, though, the significance of the Supreme Court’s upcoming decision is a key issue for major liberal groups gearing up to defend the Democratic Party’s House and Senate majorities.

Expectations that the court will hand down a ruling in June on a Mississippi case directly challenging the precedent set by Roe v Wade, the landmark case which established abortion as a protected medical right in the US, threaten to turn the midterm elections on their head. If a ruling came down at that time, it would land right in the middle of congressional primary elections around the US, while setting up a major point of contention for some general election campaigns ahead of November.

The effect of a ruling overturning part or all of Roe v Wade, which many pro-abortion activists privately admit is a real possibility, could greatly complicate the political dynamics of 2022 and expand the miderms far beyond a simple referendum on Mr Biden’s first two years in office.

“It is no longer a potential reality, but an actual reality,” said Kelly Dietrich, who runs an organisation that trains Democratic candidates for office, the National Democratic Training Committee.

The result of that “actual reality” is an “incredibly large” potential for Democrats to win over both voters on the left who may be demoralised by the administration’s setbacks over the past year as well as moderate Republican voters who may be ready to support the GOP again after swinging in Mr Biden’s favour against Donald Trump in 2020, Mr Dietrich told The Independent in an interview.

“It’s always a motivator for some,” but not often the “overriding factor for the general election”, Mr Dietrich said of the issue of abortion.

“[But ][i]f there’s a decision next year, and Roe v Wade is actually overturned, that’s a much different scenario,” he continued. “Because it won’t just be [Texas and Mississippi] then…it becomes a real, ‘in my backyard’ moment for people around the country.”

The issue was not an “overriding factor” in November, when Terry McCauliffe’s failed bid to be Virginia’s next governor showed the limits of focusing on abortion while the former governor’s campaign was overshadowed on the issues of the economy as well as the battle over “critical race theory” in schools.

Mr McAuliffe’s campaign played out amid the backdrop of laws being passed in Texas and Mississippi, two conservative bastions, with the express purpose of challenging Roe V. Wade’s precedent on abortion rights, albeit through different means. The Texas law attempts to subvert Roe by forbidding state officials from enforcing the ban and instead deputising state residents to file lawsuits through the state court system, with successful efforts eligible for cash rewards of $10,000. The Mississippi ban is enforced by the state and more directly challenges the Roe v Wade precedent by banning the practice for most reasons after 15 weeks into the pregnancy, far before the stipulations set out by the Roe precedent say a ban can take effect.

Exit polls indicated the issue trailed behind education and the economy as well as others in terms of importance to voters in Virginia when they made their decisions at the polls; despite that lack of interest, Mr McAuliffe campaigned on opposition to abortion restrictions passed by GOP officials in Texas and Mississippi and even paid for campaign ads to be released in tandem with the Texas law taking effect in September.

Abortion rights activists with EMILY’s List, a group that supports Democratic candidate who align with them on the issue, agreed with Mr Dietrich’s assumption that a ruling in June would dramatically change that reality faced by Democrats in Virginia last year.

Up until now, a majority of American voters “have not believed those rights are under real threat,” said Christina Reynolds, the group’s vice president.

“We’ll be in a different place” once the ruling comes down, she continued, adding: “We know a few things…a majority of americans support Roe, a majority of Americans are pro-choice, and want those rights around.”

Both Ms Reynolds and Mr Dietrich expressed that Democratic candidates campaigning in 2022 need to tie the issue back to the idea of the government interfering in an individual’s private, personal healthcare decisions, which they indicated would appeal to both Democrats and moderate Republicans.

“I do think it’s worth remembering that it’s important that everyone make their own healthcare decisions,” said Ms Reynolds. “It’s important that everyone be able to decide when, and if, to start a family.”

Voters including men, she continued “may not have their own abortion story, but they have their own healthcare story”.

Mr Dietrich concurred: “You tie it back, this is healthcare! This is a fundamental right the government is trying to take away from you.”

In addition to congressional elections, 2022 is set to be the stage for a major face-off in Texas between incumbent Gov Greg Abbott and Beto O’Rourke, a former congressman and contender for both the US Senate and presidency. The race is likely to be one of the main battlegrounds for the abortion issue next year, as Mr Abbott’s administration oversaw the signing into law of a widely controversial law last year that criminalised abortion after six weeks and deputised state residents to enforce the law via civil claims. The law has led to the near-total shutdown of abortion services across the state.

Mr O’Rourke has already come out swinging on the issue, using the playbook described word-for-word by operatives like Ms Reynolds and Mr Dietrich. In November, he accused the governor of placing “a $10,000 bounty on the head of any woman who seeks to make a personal, private health care decision that is none of the state’s or the governor’s business” by signing the bill into law.

Sharp rhetoric like Mr O’Rourke’s is likely only to intensify next year if a decision comes down from the Court changing or overturning Roe V. Wade, and Democrats come under new pressure from activists to push for codification of abortion rights through congressional action, an effort that would only likely be possible with a surge of Democratic wins in 2022, given opposition to the idea from Sen Joe Manchin as well as resistance from him and others to changing the legislative filibuster rule, which kills any hope for most legislation without 60 votes to support it.

“If you’re talking process, you lose. You need to communicate with emotion and story,” said Mr Dietrich. “Logic and common sense is not gonna work. You’ve gotta get people fired up.”

Ms Reynolds harkened back to the news coverage and reactions from national politicians to the gathering of pro- and anti- abortion demonstraters in early December for signs of encouragement heading in to 2022, even as she conceded that she believes “that Donald Trump was looking for justices that would overturn Roe, and...that he got three of them.”

Speaking with The Independent, she noted the presence of several Democratic members of Congress at the demonstrations, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Rep Cori Bush, a congresswoman who recently shared her own experience of having an abortion.

“One of the clearest signs to me that national Republicans know this is a losing issue for them…if you look at what was coming out that day...every Democrat talked about the importance of this right,” she recalled.

She added, confidently: “And most national Republicans acted like it didn’t happen.”