Britain may have avoided recession – but we shouldn’t be celebrating just yet

Britain has officially avoided a recession in 2019, according to the first set of figures released by the Office for National Statistics. It speaks to just how extreme the level of bulls*** in British political discourse has got that this was being characterised as a “Boris Johnson bounce” before the numbers were even out.

For the record, both the City’s consensus and the Bank England’s forecast called for 0.4 per cent growth during the third quarter of 2019, an improvement over the 0.2 per cent contraction in the second. The official figures, which came in at 0.3, once again undershot that. Economists being overly optimistic has become something of a theme of late.

But even had they got it right, it would have represented a pitiful performance. UK plc basically looked like you or I would were we to struggle into work with one of those vicious little cold viruses that have been doing the rounds of late.

Breaking out the month-by-month figures, the economy got out of bed in July only to fall back in August before giving up the ghost in September, at which point it retired to its bed, contracting by 0.1 per cent in the process.

The Institute of Directors chief economist Tej Parikh said that may be because the concerns of UK firms over a no-deal Brexit reached their height during that month

“A return to growth is welcome news, but narrowly avoiding a recession is nothing to celebrate,” he said of the overall numbers. Variations on that theme could be found across the City of London.

You would have to be either a wild optimist, fresh off a trip to one of those US states where it’s legal to smoke dope, or (much more likely) a cynical liar to see anything much good in them.

Some details: manufacturing was stagnant, with the heavy lifting (as ever) done by services with a bit of help from construction, which picked itself up off the floor.

If forecasters are right about the full year, the UK is on course for its slowest growth in nearly a decade, with the final tally looking set for a rip-roaring 1 per cent, putting the UK behind France and the US, but ahead of Italy, which is hardly a sterling achievement in the current climate.

The TUC weighed in by tweeting out a nice table showing what’s been happening to the economy over the last five years. I’ll give you it here in list form: 2015 produced growth of 2.2 per cent which then fell to 1.9 per cent in 2016, followed by 1.8 per cent in 2017, 1.6 per cent last year with 2019 set for 1 per cent if the economy does what it’s supposed to in the fourth quarter.

“The economy is going only one way,” it said, leaving us to join the dots as to who’s to blame (clue: the people in charge of UK plc over those five years like to wear blue rosettes).

“And when that happens, it’s working people who pay the price,” the union umbrella body added, which is also true, particularly if you consider the darkening outlook for employment and the way wages have performed over the course of those five years.

It goes without saying that things would have been much, much better without the dark cloud of Brexit hanging over everything. It’s the ultimate party pooper, not that there’s been much of a party on these shores.

If Boris Johnson gets the majority he craves, he’s promised to go on a public spending and borrowing spree, hoping that will put some fuel into the tank at a time when the global outlook is grim and he’s put himself in hock to the extremists sitting behind him with his ruinously hard Brexit “deal”.

You don’t have to be a doomsayer to realise that if you’ve a duvet handy, now might be a good time to hide under it.

Let’s be fair, Labour hasn’t exactly been covering itself in economic glory either. “It’s a shame as this brilliant country deserves much better,” said Panmure’s Simon French of British politics’ big two, and it does.

The UK might have avoided a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) this time around. But let’s be clear, the monster is still lurking under the bed.