Vaccine passports could save lives and ‘prevent future lockdowns,’ experts write in BMJ

Coronavirus vaccine passports could lower deaths from the virus “by as much as 30 per cent” in the UK, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has suggested.

In an article published in the BMJ, researchers from the institution claimed the certificates were also “the most accurate tool” for reducing the spread of the disease and for lowering the chance of future lockdowns.

Kirsty Innes and Daniel Sleat, the authors of the opinion piece, wrote that if the government had made the passes mandatory from mid-July, it “could have reduced cases and deaths over the subsequent weeks by as much as 30 per cent”.

But this stance is opposed by other experts, including Imogen Parker, a fellow at Cambridge University’s Centre for Science and Policy, who said that vaccine passports “can’t guarantee safety”.

There could also be potential problems such as inequality and the “creation of enduring surveillance technology”, she added.

In opposition to the BMJ article, Ms Parker mentioned a superspreader event in the summer, the Boardmasters Festival in Cornwall, where the use of vaccine passports did not prevent a large outbreak from occurring.

The passes could become mandatory alongside mask-wearing under the government’s coronavirus “Plan B”.

However, Tory ministers have explained that this fall-back option would only be used if the NHS is put under “unsustainable” pressure, something NHS leaders argue is already the case.

Amid a significant spike in coronavirus infections, Chaand Nagpaul, the head of the British Medical Association (BMA), said last month that it was “wilfully negligent” of the government not to take any preventative action.

With daily cases still averaging around 40,000, Boris Johnson insisted on Sunday that “absolutely everyone” agreed that contingency Covid-19 plans are not necessary for the time being.

The prime minister appeared to forget the words of Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation. Speaking in mid-October, he said: “It is time for the government to enact plan B of its strategy without delay because without pre-emptive action, we risk stumbling into a winter crisis.

“We are right on the edge – and it is the end of October. It would require an incredible amount of luck for us not to find ourselves in the midst of a profound crisis over the next three months.”

While dismissing the need for Plan B on Sunday, Mr Johnson took the time to urge people to book their booster jabs.

“How sad, how tragic it would be if people who had other complications, other compromises in their health, got seriously ill because they were overconfident about their level of immunity and didn’t get their booster when they needed it,” he said.

More than 8 million in the UK have had their booster doses, including two-thirds of fully vaccinated over-80s.