Government ‘war games’ emergency plans to cope with week-long blackouts

The British government has reportedly “war gamed” emergency plans to deal with week-long electricity blackouts amid concerns over the security of power supply this winter due to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Officials are “stress testing” the confidential plan, known as “Programme Yarrow”, to deal with the blackouts and have held a series of exercises with government departments across the country in recent days.

Under the plan, getting food, water and shelter to the young and elderly would be prioritised amid fears of an increased chance of a colder-than-usual winter this year. Those with caring responsibilities will also be the first to be reached by teams to provide shelter.

Official and “sensitive” documents obtained by The Guardian showed that in a “reasonable worst-case scenario”, all sectors, including transport, food, water supply, communications and energy, could be “severely disrupted” for up to seven days.

The plan has been in place since 2021, long before the Ukraine invasion, in an effort to improve planning and resilience if the National Grid went down due to any technical faults.

Flood damage or lightning strike on a substation are outlined as reasons for a potential blackout. A hostile attack on sub-sea power cables similar to the attacks on Nord Stream pipelines is also mentioned in the documents.

The Guardian quoted a source as saying that the government doesn’t want any publicity on the emergency plan as "they don’t want it to be seen as linked to Ukraine, energy supply, and the cost of living”.

“But we need to think about how we can help people in advance,” the source was quoted as saying.

“The fact they’re talking about it now means they have a real concern it could happen.”

Programme Yarrow is chalked up to prepare for a more severe situation than that outlined by the National Grid last month, which warned of up to three-hour rolling blackouts.

The plan envisages that 60 per cent of the electricity demand will be met “between day 2 and day 7” when households and businesses will be given “intermittent access” to rationed supply.

According to an agreement between energy regulator Ofgem and the National Grid, 100 per cent of the electricity demand would be restored after a week, even in a “worst-case scenario”.

The document outlines that in the severest turn of events, only analogue FM radio stations would work, with just BBC Radio 2 and 4 broadcasting with the help of generators.

“As a responsible government, it is right that we plan for all potential scenarios and work with industry to prepare and exercise robust contingency plans,” a government spokesperson told The Guardian.

“This work is ongoing continuously and is an important strand of our national resilience planning,” the spokesperson added.

“Local and national exercises are a part of this ongoing work and ensure we are able to effectively respond to any of a wide range of scenarios, no matter how unlikely they may be.”