Inside Politics: Labour rocked by bombshell Hartlepool by-election poll

I don’t wish to alarm you, but there’s a massive Chinese rocket set to crash back down to Earth in the next few days. The 21-ton projectile will likely burn up in re-entry or plop into an ocean – but scientists have warned there’s a risk of an uncontrolled, unpredictable landing somewhere people live. Westminster’s “sleaze” scandal currently feels uncontrolled and unpredictable – nobody is quite sure quite where the dirt will land or what sort of damage it will cause. There are signs it could be beginning to hurt the Conservatives. Labour has closed the Tory party’s national poll lead. But Keir Starmer’s team has been rocked by a poll which appears to showing Labour is almost certain set to lose its seat in Hartlepool.

Inside the bubble

Political editor Andrew Woodcock on what to look out for today:

Foreign secretary Dominic Raab will be holding face-to-face talks with G7 foreign ministers on defending international rules. Boris Johnson holds a virtual meeting with Indian PM Narendra Modi, as big investment deals are announced. And Keir Starmer will be campaigning in key battlegrounds seats in Wales ahead of Thursday’s elections.

Daily briefing

SOME DISTANCE LEFT TO RUN: Boris Johnson has said there’s a “good chance” the one-metre plus social distancing rule in England will be ditched on 21 June. “That’s what it feels like to me right now,” the PM said. It’s bad timing for Johnson ahead of the elections, but angry hospitality bosses and anti-lockdown Tory MPs are in agitation mode. No 10 won’t like the Daily Mail’s splash this morning: ‘Why Wait Seven More Weeks?’ Tory MP Robert Syms said: “We need to push the government to get on with it. A lot of normal life could be returned.” It comes as pub chiefs lost an audacious legal challenge for a faster return to indoor dining. Johnson also revealed that some foreign travel may resume after 17 May. But holidaymakers may be disappointed about what’s available to them in a fortnight. Malta, Gibraltar, Israel and possibly Portugal are set to be on the “green list” of countries announced later this week, according to The Times. A government official said people would just have to be patient before a “big bang” reopening of popular destinations in early June.

POLLS APART: Are the “sleaze” stories hitting home at long last for Labour? Well, a new Redfield & Wilton survey shows Labour up four points, cutting the Tory poll lead to just two points. It follows two recent polls putting Keir Starmer’s party within five points of the Conservatives. But the latest Survation poll in Hartlepool gives the Tories a whopping 17-point lead in the by-election (it was carried out between 22-29 April, however, before the flat refurb stories hit their peak). Out knocking elbows in Hartlepool, Boris Johnson tried to shrug off wallpaper-gate. “I know that people want to focus on trivia, but I’m focusing on the issues that matter,” he said. Top Tories appear to be a bit rattled by the affair. Cabinet minister James Cleverly attacked the media for focusing on Johnson’s flat makeover while India was suffering from Covid (an unusual bit of whataboutery). Starmer isn’t going to ease up on the sleaze stuff. The Labour boss pledged to “clean up our politics”. He also pledged to “take full responsibility whatever the outcome” on Thursday. Which suggests he suspects the results won’t be great.

WHOOPEE FOR THE RUPEES: Boris Johnson has something to boast about on the campaign trail, after he announced new investment deals with India worth £1bn. It includes £533m of investment from India into the UK. Although it falls short of a comprehensive free trade agreement, No 10 hailed the partnership and claimed it would “pave the way” for a future deal with India. Meanwhile, the US secretary of state Antony Blinken told a Downing Street press conference that America has “no closer ally, no closer partner” than Britain. But in pointed remarks about Northern Ireland, Joe Biden’s top diplomat said the historic peace agreement must be upheld and protected, despite all the shenanigans over the protocol. He said the president was “unequivocal in his support for the Good Friday Agreement”. Elsewhere, David Cameron is reportedly close to dropping his plans to set up a UK-China investment fund. One of the former PM’s pals told the FT it was “almost moribund”. Poor Dave. Back to his shepherd’s hut to write another book?

APPETITE FOR DESTRUCTION: Alex Salmond keeps coming up with wild and somewhat sinister remarks. This time he’s claimed he could have “destroyed” Nicola Sturgeon if he’d really wanted to. It follows the SNP leader’s revealing interview with The New Yorker, in which she talked about the recent war with her old boss. “I think my political opponents – I don’t know, maybe Alex himself ... There was an element of ‘We can break her,’ you know,” Sturgeon told the US magazine. “That was how it felt.” Salmond reportedly laughed when told about the comments, before adding: “If I wanted to destroy her, that could have been done.” It comes as a right-wing think tank claimed Iran has put “considerable effort” into meddling in the Scottish election. The Henry Jackson Society claimed Tehran was using fake accounts to encourage independence. Hmmm. A reminder: I’ll be doing an ‘Ask Me Anything’ event on the Scottish election and the push for indyref2 on The Independent site at 1pm today. So if you have any questions, just register and submit your query in the comments box (on the page linked above).

TRANS EUROPE FINESSE: Good news from Europe. Tourists could be able to holiday in EU countries as soon as June, so as long as they are vaccinated or from a nation with low Covid rates such as the UK. Under plans being finalised by the EU Commission, anyone who has both doses at least 14 days before their trip will be allowed to travel. “Time to revive EU tourism industry,” said Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen. Before booking a trip to the continent, it’s worth bearing in mind that the UK government is reportedly ready to give the green light to fewer than 10 EU countries. Elsewhere, Michael Barnier has had some interesting things to say about the vaccine roll-out. The former Brexit negotiator praised Britain and admitted risk aversion led the EU to botch its early vaccination drive. “There was an almost ideological mistrust of public-private partnerships. We don’t know how to take risks. The British took risks by financing the private sector … We don’t know how to do that yet.”

On the record

“I will take full responsibility for the results in the elections this week.”

Keir Starmer is ready take the flak if things go badly.

From the Twitterati

“Three days before by-election day, Boris Johnson is back in Hartlepool … On the freezing wet sea front, people were flocking to him for selfies and elbow bumps.”

The FT’s Sebastian Payne on the PM’s popularity…

“One of the problems for Boris’s opponents is they genuinely can’t believe he’s popular with people. And because they don’t believe it, they don’t try to understand it.”

…and Dan Hodges says the Johnson haters have giving up trying to work out his appeal.

Essential reading

Angela Rayner, The Independent: The last thing London needs is Shaun Bailey’s brand of uncaring politics

Rob Merrick, The Independent: Why 1990s Tory sleaze pales in comparison with Johnson’s scandals

Polly Toynbee, The Guardian: A Tory election win risks dishonesty becoming the new normal

Ido Vock, New Statesman: How is the SNP’s quest for independence viewed in Europe and the US?

Sign up here to receive this free daily briefing in your email inbox every morning