Fracking ban to be lifted despite scientists ‘advising UK that forecasting earthquake will be a challenge’

The government is set to lift the ban on fracking despite a leaked scientific review that acknowledges that forecasting drilling-induced earthquakes “remains a scientific challenge”.

The key government-commissioned report by the British Geological Survey (BGS) includes little evidence that progress has been made in reducing and predicting the risk of fracking-induced earthquakes, The Guardian reports.

It also says there are still “significant existing knowledge gaps” when identifying sites that may be able to cope with magnitude 3 tremors.

A ban on fracking in England was announced in 2019 after a report by the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) found it was not possible to accurately predict the probability or intensity of earthquakes linked to fracking operations. The Independent has not confirmed the contents of the BGS report.

The review of the science was due to be published last week in conjunction with Liz Truss’s announcement to reverse the ban but was delayed following news of the Queen’s death.

The BGS report was commissioned in April by the former business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng, who is now chancellor.

Writing to the BGS, Mr Kwarteng asked it whether there had been new developments in the science of fracking, in particular techniques which could reduce the risk and magnitude of seismic events.

The official written lifting of the ban on fracking – announced by Ms Truss last week – is expected to be published following the Queen’s funeral on Monday.

Green MP for Brighton Pavilion Caroline Lucas described the government’s fracking plan as “climate-wrecking, manifesto-breaking and earthquake regulation-shattering” in light of the recent report.

“Fracking is a dirty and dangerous distraction from the real solutions on offer – this shale gas must stay in the ground.”

Greenpeace UK’s chief scientist said for the government to reverse its position on shale gas on the back of the report would simply be breaking a clear promise on which they were elected.

“They have no mandate from the voters or from the circumstances for such a change, and if they carry it through it would just mean we had an industry with lower standards of safety, and a government with lower standards of integrity,” he said.

Friends of the Earth energy campaigner Danny Gross said fracking was one of the least popular forms of energy generation in the UK.

“Fracking will only have a negligible impact, if any, on soaring fuel bills,” he said. “Ministers should abandon shale gas extraction and focus instead on energy efficiency and onshore wind and solar – which are cheap, popular and quick to build.”

Andrew Aplin, an honorary professor in the department of earth sciences at Durham University, said in terms of the science it did not appear from the report that there is anything in there to suggest the government should change its mind on lifting the ban.

“Our ability to predict the magnitude of fracking induced earth tremors has not improved,” he said.

Robin Teverson, a member of the House of Lords whose focus in the chamber includes the climate crisis, said he could see why people would be concerned about their properties considering there have reportedly been no further developments on predicting earthquakes.

As for lifting the ban on fracking more broadly, he said it risks “trashing our reputation as a climate change leader, particularly while we’re still president of Cop26”.

“This is not a good move at the present moment,” he added.

News of the contents of the long-awaited report comes after The Independent reported earlier this week that fracking firms were pushing for earthquake limits to be relaxed and planning permissions sped up in England.

The industry body told The Independent that lifting the moratorium will only kick start the industry if new rules are brought in to make fracking easier.

A government spokesperson said it commissioned the BGS to advise on the latest scientific evidence on shale gas extraction.

“Making the most of our own gas resources makes us less dependent on imports and helps maintain the security of the UK’s energy supply in both the short and long term,” the spokesperson said.

“Drawing on lessons from around the world, we will make sure it is done as safely as possible and where there is local support.”