Inside Politics: Brexit talks stuck in ‘serious’ situation, claims No 10

Dominic Cummings has offered a thinly-veiled dig at Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds, saying too many political types were obsessed with “gossip column stories about their dogs”. Right on cue, the PM and his partner have begun sending out Christmas cards with their dog Dilyn on the front. Let’s hope Johnson remembers to send out cards to various EU leaders. Although he may actually be spending more of his Christmas with them than Carrie – as Brexit negotiations threaten to go on over the holiday.

Inside the bubble

Policy correspondent Jon Stone on what to look out for today:

Brussels chief negotiator Michel Barnier holds a call with MEPs this morning to update them on the latest from the negotiations. UK and EU teams will continue trying to make progress towards a trade deal on Friday, ahead of a new Sunday deadline set by leaders in the European Parliament so they have time to ratify.

Daily briefing

A SERIOUS MAN: How is the Brexit mood music this morning? Sombre, according to Downing Street. No 10’s negotiator David Frost said the situation was “very serious” and “progress seems blocked” following another call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen last night. The EU Commission chief said bridging their differences would be “very challenging” – particularly on fish. Talks appear to have come down to the length of a transition period on fishing access, and an EU demand on being able to impose tariffs if the UK diverges significantly on state aid. Various reports quoting unnamed diplomats still paint a cautiously optimistic picture, suggesting a deal can be done in the coming days. But Michael Gove insists on being pessimistic. At least in public. Gove said the chances of a deal are “less than 50 per cent”. More encouragingly, he also said that while the EU parliament has claimed it wouldn’t have time to ratify a deal if it wasn’t done by Sunday, the two sides could keep talking and apply “provisional application” come 1 January.

THREE IS THE MAGIC NUMBER? A third national lockdown would be considered if Covid infections spike after Christmas, No 10 has suggested. There is concern over the growing number of hospitals now running short of beds. NHS hospitals had to divert ambulances 44 times last week, the highest number in four years. “It already feels like we’re in the grips of a really bad winter,” said NHS Providers chief Chris Hopson. Matt Hancock announced that another five million people – covering large parts of the south-east and east of England – will move into tier 3 on Saturday. “We’ve come so far, we mustn’t blow it now,” said the health secretary. People in Northern Ireland will have to go into shutdown mode from Boxing Day, after the executive announced last night a six-week lockdown beginning on 26 December. Wales has already announced one from 28 December. If Nicola Sturgeon decided on a post-Christmas lockdown for Scotland, would Boris Johnson feel pressured to do the same?

FURLOUGHED BROWS: Rishi Sunak is worried enough about the outlook for early 2021 to have extended the furlough scheme for another month – taking it to the end of April. The chancellor said it would provide “certainty” for millions of people, but Labour complained he hadn’t given business owners enough notice before Christmas. Keir Starmer’s party have a stronger line of attack on council tax rises, after the government cleared councils in England to hike it by up to 5 per cent – a “clobbering” increase, according to Labour. Starmer also attacked the Tories over Unicef’s decision to offer funding to help feed hungry children in the UK for the very first time. “We’re the sixth richest country in the world – it is shameful that Unicef is having to ensure our children are fed,” said the Labour leader. But Jacob Rees-Mogg claimed the shame lay with Unicef. He accused the UN agency of “playing politics” and said it should be “ashamed of itself”. Rees-Mogg suggested serious poverty was something experience by other countries – not Britain.

I WENT TO A MARVELLOUS (BUSINESS) PARTY: Is it possible for a Christmas party to simultaneously be a business meeting? Tory MP Tobias Ellwood has defended going out to a private dinner for 27 guests held by the Iraq Britain Business Council (listed as a “Christmas Party” on the organisation’s website). Ellwood said his attendance was “well-intentioned” and insisted it was all for business – and thus within the rules. But home secretary Priti Patel disagrees. Asked by ITV News if Ellwood’s big dinner was a breach of the rules, she said: “Well, it is. Of course it is exactly that. Having dinner outside of the rules with a large number of people is a breach of the regulations.” What would Dominic Cummings make of another story about rule-breaking? Serious enough for him? The ex-No 10 strategist has attacked Britain’s political for being too frivolous, saying that it “incentivises politicians to focus more on Twitter” while ignoring bigger, “existential” threats. The gloomster-doomster has written a piece for The Spectator about the nuclear threat.

WHERE DID IT ALL GO BONG: Mark Francois is getting his bongs after all. The Brexiteering Tory MP will be delighted that Big Ben will bong as Britain leaves the EU’s single market and customs union at 11pm on 31 December. It’s actually just a coincidence – part of routine test before it bongs again to bring in the new year at midnight. In other culture war news, equalities minister Liz Truss has been lambasted for her speech urging us to get beyond on race, religion, gender and sexual orientation. She said the equalities debate had too often been dominated by “fashion” and not “facts”. Labour accused Truss of “gratuitous provocation” – saying she the ignoring the “devastating impact” of discrimination. Speaking of which, Labour has published its plan for handling antisemitism. It commits to an independent complaints process, an advisory board of Jewish members and new educational material.

WHAT’S THE HOLD UP? Joe Biden was never going to get an easy time of it. Top Republican Chuck Grassley has vowed that he and his pals in the Senate will reject the president-elect’s request for them to quickly confirm his Cabinet selections so he can hit the ground running immediately after his inauguration. Grassley said it was “pretty darn rich” of Democrats to complain about obstruction. Meanwhile, Biden has given one of his first interviews as president-elect to address the FBI investigation into his son Hunter and his so-called “tax affairs”. But instead of talking to a news reporter, the next president sat down with late-night comedy host Stephen Colbert to claim the FBI was engaging in partisan “foul play” to get to him through his son. “I am not concerned about any accusations that have been made against him. He’s a grown man, he is the smartest man I know, I mean from a pure intellectual capacity.”

On the record

“I think at the moment actually... regrettably, chances are more likely we won’t secure an agreement, so at the moment less than 50 per cent.”

Michael Gove tells us not to get our hopes up.

From the Twitterati

“I find it personally helpful not to believe anything that issues from the mouth of Michael Gove.”

Actor Stephen McGann disregards Gove’s ‘less than 50 cent chance’ comments…

“Gove says unless a trade deal is negotiated this year, the UK will not negotiate a new one with the EU next year. How childish. And how incredibly dangerous. Telling your biggest market ... that you'll hold your breath until you pass out.”

...and the Best for Britain group did not like his comments on 2021.

Essential reading

Mark Steel, The Independent: Do we see in Johnson the authority he admires in Churchill? We do not

Hayley Andersen, The Independent: Unlike the UK, many African nations have effective test and trace 

Paul Mason, New Statesman: Trump’s defeat shows how Boris Johnson and the Conservatives can be beaten

Andy Beckett, The Guardian: If Keir Starmer wants to change Britain, he’ll need more than caution

Sign up here to receive this daily briefing in your email inbox every morning