Inside Politics: Boris Johnson pleads with Tory MPs to back his tier system

It’s a riddle wrapped in a puzzle inside an enigma. The mysterious metal monolith discovered in the Utah desert has now mysteriously disappeared – leaving people to speculate whether space aliens or anyone else knows what they hell it was all about. Boris Johnson has managed to make England’s looming tier system a muddle wrapped in a mess inside a shambles. He has given Tory MPs a series of perplexing clues about when and how their areas might come out of the toughest measures this winter. The PM hopes to persuade backbenchers the system need not be monolithic throughout the winter.

Inside the bubble

Our Whitehall editor Kate Devlin on what to look out for today:

The government will today publish health, economic and social data about England’s new tier system. Boris Johnson is under huge pressure from his own MPs over his controversial Covid plan. Could a cost-benefit analysis persuade Tory MPs where other tactics have failed? Environment secretary George Eustice will be doing the broadcast round to discuss the government’s post-Brexit plan for farming – appearing on Good Morning Britain at 8.30am and LBC 8.50am.

Daily briefing

SELLING SUNSET: Boris Johnson has written two letters to Tory MPs in the past 48 hours, in a desperate bid to get their backing for the new tier system at Tuesday’s vote. He has now agreed to publish all the data behind the system. The PM tried and failed to defuse a major revolt with his first letter at the weekend, which promised a “sunset” expiration date of 3 February (with MPs getting another vote on the rules at the end of January). There is confusion over the potential for tier boundaries to change after health secretary Matt Hancock reportedly told Leicestershire MPs that rural areas with low infection rates could be “decoupled” from the city (which has a higher incidence rate). Mark Harper, chair of the Coronavirus Research Group, said on Sunday that rebels just wanted “hard evidence, not hyperbole.” With Labour undecided on its stance ahead of Tuesday’s vote, shadow foreign secretary Lisa Nandy said support for the system was “not unconditional”.

FISH BONE OF CONTENTION: All this consternation is happening at an absolutely crucial stage in the Brexit talks. Foreign secretary Dominic Raab said trade negotiations were entering the “last real major week”, suggesting the only remaining “major bone of contention” was fisheries. A government source demanded the EU bring “fresh thinking” on Sunday and derided an offer to reduce EU fleets’ quotas in British waters by 15 to 18 per cent as “risible”. Johnson is reportedly ready to speak to EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen in the next 48 hours to try to push for a compromise on quotas, and could also talk to French president Emmanuel Macron. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer faces the threat of resignations from his frontbench if he backs any Brexit deal that emerges, according to The Observer. The Labour leader told the Jewish Labour Movement: “I don’t think there’s a much of a case for voting against it.”

ANIMAL FARMERS: It looks like Brexit is going to cause major changes in the British countryside. A new subsidy system set out by the government today – named Environmental Land Management (ELM) – should mean more trees and wetlands, and fewer sheep and cows. As EU farm subsidies are phased out, the government will pay farmers more if they prevent floods and help wildlife. The National Farmers Union doesn’t sound ecstatic. “There’s going to be real pain for lowland beef, upland beef, and sheep farmers.” Elsewhere, the government wants telecoms providers to stop installing Huawei equipment in the 5G network from September – even earlier than expected. Culture secretary Oliver Dowden said he wanted the “complete removal of high-risk vendors”. It seems Dowden also wants rid of high-risk historical drama. The minister is writing to Netflix to express his concerns about The Crown. He wants the show to call itself “fiction” at the start of each episode.

SPHERE OF INFLUENCE: Ministers and NHS bosses want to enlist celebrities to help persuade people to get a Covid vaccine when it becomes available. They are drawing up a list of “very sensible” famous people to take part in the media campaign, according to The Guardian. Very sensible? A fairly short list, surely. Right on cue Rita Ora is on the front page of this morning’s The Sun, after allegedly breaching lockdown rules by hosting a birthday party at a restaurant. In other, very welcome coronavirus news, infections in England have fallen by a third during the lockdown, according to a major study. The findings by Imperial College London also indicate the R has fallen to 0.88. Meanwhile, Labour has called for the suspension of peak rail fares over Christmas and mass testing for transport workers. Labour wants a comprehensive travel plan presented to parliament to avoid “chaos” between 23 and 27 December.

MO MONEY MO PROBLEMS: The government ethics watchdog has been urged to investigate allegations Rishi Sunak breached the ministerial code of conduct by failing to declare his wife’s financial interests. In a letter shared with The Independent, Labour MP Tonia Antoniazzi has written to the chair of the Committee on Standards in Public Life raising concerns about the shareholdings and directorships held by Akshata Murty and her family. It comes after The Guardian reported that Ms Murty was “richer than the Queen”. Labour has its own problems to worry about it. The party will suspend “thousands” of members unless they “get real” about antisemitism, deputy leader Angela Rayner warned. Dozens of constituency Labour parties are reported to have passed motions in support of the Jeremy Corbyn over the EHRC report row – despite the party’s general secretary banning them from doing so.

ALL THE SENIOR LADIES: Joe Biden has named an all-female senior press team – something his office is claiming to be a historic first. Kate Bedingfield, his former deputy campaign comms director, will lead the team, while Jen Psaki, Barack Obama’s former White House comms director, will be the face of the incoming administration as press secretary. Trump, meanwhile, is clinging onto his delusions that Biden stole the presidential election, citing thousands of votes which magically switched to the president-elect and poll watchers illegally barred – neither of which happened. “We won the race,” Trump told Fox News. “This was corruption. Because we got far more votes than him.” Elsewhere, Dr Anthony Fauci said the US could see “surge upon surge” of Covid cases as people return home from the Thanksgiving holiday.

On the record

“We can see the sunlit upland pastures ahead. But if we try to jump the fence now, we will tangle ourselves in the last barbed wire.”

Boris Johnson comes up with more metaphors for the crisis.

From the Twitterati

“It’s clear the Johnson government’s approach to lockdown is like a ricochet – all over the place, fast. No idea what happens next. Neither does the PM, I fear.”

Andrew Neil thinks Boris Johnson is twisting in the wind…

“The Tory anti-lockdowners are finally starting to exert some leverage over Boris Johnson.”

…while The Telegraph’s Patrick O’Flynn thinks backbenchers are twisting his arm.

Essential reading

John Rentoul, The Independent: Is the Covid crisis an excuse for breaking manifesto pledges?

Michael Chessum, The Independent: Labour must oppose Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal

Nesrine Malik, The Guardian: The more the Tories’ cronyism is indulged, the more their entitlement grows

Uri Friedman, The Atlantic: The damage caused by Trump will last

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