Inside Politics: EU patience with UK over protocol ‘wearing thin’

The latest cover story for the American magazine The Atlantic depicts Boris Johnson as a storytelling genius who floats above the common herd of politicians – getting away with things mere mortals cannot. “There’s a magic to Boris which allows him to escape political challenges,” said one of his old Oxford chums. The magician has somehow escaped again, dodging defeat over aid budget cuts after the rebel Tory amendment was rejected. Can Johnson magic up an agreement over the protocol? Or is the mess beyond his powers?

Inside the bubble

Chief political commentator John Rentoul on what to look out for:

The Commons will hold a three-hour emergency debate on foreign aid cuts at around 2.45pm. Cabinet will meet this morning and will hear about a series of green announcements: environment secretary George Eustice is set to increase marine protection on World Oceans Day and introduce the Animal Welfare Bill in parliament.

Daily briefing

GET YOU NEXT TIME: Boris Johnson can breathe again. There will be no embarrassing defeat over aid budget cuts during G7 week after all. Rebel Tory MPs were thwarted after Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle ruled their amendment inadmissible. Johnson now faces the humiliation of MPs slagging him off all afternoon – the Speaker has granted the rebels a three-hour emergency debate – but the PM won’t really mind. More importantly, Sir Lindsay made clear he wanted the Commons to having a meaningful vote (an “effective decision”) on the 0.7 per cent foreign aid spend target. Leading rebel Andrew Mitchell said the onus was on the government to comply with the Speaker’s demand. “In 34 years in the Commons, I’ve never heard a Speaker be so clear in his criticism of the government,” he told The Independent. An opportunity to vote on the issue may not come again until the autumn, however.

BANGERS AND BASH: Another absurd headline for the museum of Brexit. “Europe threatens sausage trade war” runs The Telegraph’s front page this morning. In an article for the newspaper, EU Commission vice president Maros Sefcovic raised the possibility of a melee over meat. He said Brussels would react “swiftly, firmly and resolutely” if the UK unilaterally extends the grace period in the protocol – which expires at the end of the month – to allow shops in Northern Ireland to carry on selling British sausages without checks. Businesses in Northern Ireland have warned that both the UK and EU are testing their “faith” in the Brexit deal, ahead of David Frost’s big meeting with Sefcovic on Wednesday. One EU official said patience with the UK is now “wearing thin”. The respected Brexit analyst Mujtaba Rahman said there was consensus across EU capitals that “Frost is the problem”. He said EU leaders are hoping to use the margins of this week’s G7 summit in Cornwall “to get to Boris Johnson directly” and persuade him to agree a compromise. Good luck with that.

BROTHERS GRIM: It looks like the end of the lockdown curbs in England could be delayed for two weeks after a “downbeat” briefing to ministers by the government’s top scientists Prof Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance. The data provided was “fairly grim”, according The Times. Health secretary Matt Hancock put on his smiley face in public, however – announcing that 25 to 29-year-olds in England will be able to book their first jab from today. Despite rising Covid cases, Hancock insisted that the vaccines are breaking the link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths. “Hospitalisations have been broadly flat,” he said at the latest briefing. But more grim warnings come from MPs on the health and social care committee. A report by Jeremy Hunt’s committee says levels of staff burn-out in the NHS presents an “emergency”. Worryingly, MPs found that there is no accurate forecast of the number of staff the NHS needs for the next five to 10 years.

THE NOT-SO-SPECIAL ONES: Are we witnessing the death of a great political cliche? Boris Johnson is not a fan of the term “special relationship” to describe the UK’s partnership with America, No 10 has confirmed. The PM’s official spokesperson did not dispute a report in The Atlantic which claimed Johnson told Joe Biden the term made Britain seem “needy and weak”. But it didn’t stop Biden using it in an article for the Washington Post this week. The president said he wanted to “affirm the special relationship”. Could Biden be trolling Johnson? Let’s count how many times Joe says “special” in Cornwall ... Meanwhile, the PM has backed the England squad’s decision to take the knee prior to their Euro 2021 matches. No 10 said Johnson “fully respects” their right to “make their feelings known”. Downing Street also backed comments made by the culture secretary Oliver Dowden that the England and Wales Cricket Board went “over the top” in suspending bowler Ollie Robinson for racist and sexist tweets he made as a teenager.

ALL SHOOK UP: The defence secretary could lose his seat because of some pretty major changes planned for the electoral map. Ben Wallace, who represents the North West seat of Wyre and Preston North, is one of the MPs whose constituencies are at risk of being wiped out. The Boundary Commission outlined its proposals for changes due in July 2023 – with England set to gain 10 seats, Scotland set to lose two and Wales set to lose eight. Shaken up by the planned shake-up, there were calls for Johnson to call a general election before any of it happens. One unnamed and panicked Tory MP told The Telegraph: “MPs will go mad about this … The most likely date for election is May or June 2023.” Parts of the north of England and Midlands would lose seats, while the south would gain them. Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said this was likely to help the Tories, but not as much as expected. He suggested the south was now more “Labour-friendly” than it used to be.

On the record

“I expect that the government should find a way to have this important matter debated and allow the House to formally take an effective decision.”

Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle denies vote on aid cut – but suggests he wants it to happen later.

From the Twitterati

“There’s a very strong consensus across the EU that Frost is THE problem. EU strategy now is to isolate him & use margins of G7 to get to Boris Johnson directly ... I expect a concerted push by Merkel, Macron, Von der Leyen etc.”

Brexit analyst Mujtaba Rahman thinks EU leaders will plead with the PM on the protocol…

“Real personal antipathy towards Frost ... but idea that going around him to press Johnson seems optimistic to point of naivety.”

…but the FT’s Peter Foster doesn’t think they will ‘get around’ Frost.

Essential reading

Andrew Grice, The Independent: Boris Johnson can still avoid humiliation over aid cuts if he retreats gracefully

Ed Dorrell, The Independent: Extending the school day would be good policy and good politics

Polly Toynbee, The Guardian: Dido Harding to head the NHS? Her position would be untenable

Martin Fletcher, New Statesman: Boris Johnson’s ‘Global Britain’ fantasy cannot disguise national decline

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