Inside Politics: UK applies to join pan-Pacific trade bloc

If at first you don’t succeed, they fly, fly again. Britain’s influencer jet set have ditched Dubai and headed off to Mexico in search of new “work” trip opportunities, after the UAE was hit by the travel ban. Having ditched seamless trade with Europe, Boris Johnson’s government is searching for new opportunities on the other side of the world. The UK will apply today to become the 12th member of pan-Pacific free trade area – even though we remain unavoidably stuck in the north Atlantic.

Inside the bubble

Our Whitehall editor Kate Devlin on what to look out for today:

Labour will use opposition day debates to put pressure on the government on both Covid border restrictions and unsafe cladding in the wake of Grenfell. Commons’ leader Jacob Rees-Mogg will speak at the procedure committee on how parliament continues to adjust to the virus. And health secretary Matt Hancock is expected to lead a Downing Street press conference.

Daily briefing

ORDERING UP, DIALLING DOWN: Is the big vaccine row over? The shouting has stopped, at least. UK-based firm AstraZeneca will supply the EU with an extra nine million doses by March – with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen describing it as a “step forward”. But the 40 million jabs are only about half of what the EU had hoped for. “There are a lot of lessons to be learnt,” said Irish premier Micheál Martin following Brussels’ U-turn on checks on the Irish border. Martin said he wanted to “dial down the tone” – but made clear the commission should have spoken to him before trying to muck about with Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Speaking at one of his “people’s PMQs” events on Sunday, Boris Johnson said he would like Europe to get vaccines “at the same time” as Britain – insisting “there’s no point one country on its own getting vaccinated”. But the PM’s calls to Von der Leyen at the end of last week were described as “spicy” by a No 10 source.

NOT THE END OF THE WORLD: One month on from Brexit becoming real. So far, so messy. International trade secretary Liz Truss claimed some form of success simply because it hadn’t led to “Armageddon”. Ben Fletcher of the Make UK group said it hadn’t been far off Armageddon for importers and exporters. “The last month has been like Dante’s fifth circle of hell” he said. A Make UK survey found 60 per cent of companies that said there were ready for Brexit are “now experiencing disruption”. It comes as the steel industry has warned it faces proper, honest-to-goodness tariffs within months. UK Steel said it was “likely” some of its export quotas would run out in the next few months – meaning 25 per cent tariffs. Meanwhile, Germany’s leading business lobby group has claimed Brexit trade disruption will get worse over the next six months. Supply chains would be pushed to “breaking point” in a “really dramatic way”, said the Federation of German Industries.

OVER THE HILLS AND FAR AWAY: I hope Liz Truss has got her stamps and paperwork in order. The government is sending off its official application form to join a free trade area with 11 Asian and Pacific nations today. The trade secretary said joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) – with Canada, Australian and Japan – would boost exports and reduce some tariffs. With the zone being so far away, CPTPP countries account for only 8.4 per cent of UK exports (about the same as Germany alone). But Truss said it was up to firms to boost that number. “British businesses will have to reach out and take these opportunities … what I’m doing is I’m creating the opportunities.” Brexit may not be going brilliantly, but it’s having little impact on poll numbers. It appears the Conservatives are enjoying a bump from the vaccine rollout. The latest Opinium surveys puts the Tories at 41 per cent ahead of Labour on 38 per cent.

BORDER DISORDER: Labour will try to embarrass the government on border controls today. Boris Johnson is ordering his MPs to abstain on an opposition motion to enforce compulsory hotel quarantine on all arrivals. “People are absolutely incredulous as to how the country is closed yet our borders are open,” said a Labour source. “It doesn’t make any sense.” The other opposition motion will see Labour push for a new taskforce to deal with cladding problems discovered after Grenfell. Keir Starmer said the government needs to “get a grip” on an issue which has created “ruinous costs” for residents and left them feeling unsafe. Labour is also highlighting new statistics showing Covid infections are falling more slowly in the country’s most deprived areas. Analysis has found that seven out of nine regions in England saw an uneven fall in Covid cases between the richest and poorest areas in January.

NEXT YEAR WILL OUR YEAR? Some social distancing rules might have to remain in force into 2022 – unless the vaccination programme is seriously effective at reducing the spread of Covid, government advisers have made clear. The jab would have to be 85 per cent effective to prevent another surge in deaths if curbs were completely lifted, according to modelling commissioned by a Sage subgroup. Even with the “best-case scenario” lockdown would have to be kept in place until the end of May, the research suggests. Matt Hancock tried to stay upbeat on Sunday, predicting “a happy and free Great British summer”. But Dr Susan Hopkins – Public Health England’s Covid strategy chief – suggested the spring may not be much fun. She said ending lockdown must happen only “very slowly, very cautiously”, and warned it may be necessary to “clamp down quite fast” if cases start to increase.

LEGAL EAGLES: Donald Trump has hired some new lawyers to represent him at the impeachment trial, including David Schoen – who met the disgraced Jeffrey Epstein to talk about representing him shortly before his death. Schoen said it was an “honour” to work for the disgraced ex-president. It follows a parting of the ways between Trump and a team of five lawyers who had been slated to represent him. CNN reported a person familiar with the departures as saying Trump wanted them to focus on his wild claims of mass election fraud. Something they clearly weren’t comfortable doing. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is set to meet Monday afternoon with a group of 10 Republican senators who have proposed spending about one-third of the $1.9 trillion he is seeking in coronavirus aid, though congressional Democrats are poised to move ahead without Republican support.

On the record

“Many businesses have succeeded in undergoing those new processes, continuing their exports – we haven’t seen those predictions of Armageddon come true.”

Trade secretary Liz Truss is happy that Brexit hasn’t been apocalyptic.

From the Twitterati

“Someone explain to me why joining the Pan Pacific bloc (other side of the world) is absolutely fine for Brexiters but joining the Single Market on our doorstep (which is no the same as re-joining the EU) isn’t?”

Author Emma Kennedy is puzzled by the CPTPP application…

Let's join an established trading block on the other side of the globe whose rules we have no say over... Sovereignty innit.

…and so is Bradley Wall.

Essential reading

John Rentoul, The Independent: The EU vaccine disaster has played into Boris Johnson’s hands

Patrick Cockburn, The Independent: Scotland’s independence movement will be very difficult for No 10 to stop

Nesrine Malik, The Guardian: There is a way to make this government face justice over the Covid tragedy

Michael D’Antonio, CNN: Mitch McConnell has crawled back to Trump’s side

Sign up here to receive this free daily briefing in your email inbox every morning