How Trump’s sellout of the Kurds threw Iran a lifeline in Syria

Donald Trump’s decision to pull US forces out of Syria, paved the way for Turkey to push the Kurds away from its borders – but also facilitated a comeback by Iran in one of the most strategic areas in the Middle East.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were pushed into a deal with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Iran’s staunch ally, to re-establish control over vast areas of northern Syria in a bid to stave off any Turkish incursion.

Iran has voiced “concerns” about the Turkish operations but stopped short of taking diplomatic or military actions to stop it.

Trump’s clumsy policy in Syria stands at odds with his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, after his decision last year to pull out of the nuclear deal signed between major powers and Iran in 2015.

How Iran is benefiting from the troops' drawdown?

The Turkish incursion happened as a result of the withdrawal of more than 1,000 US soldiers who were stationed in northeast Syria supporting the SDF in the fight against Isis.

Iran has long expressed its concern over the American military presence in Syria and called on the US to drawdown troops in the area and in the tiny al-Tanf base in the south.

The US’s “maximum pressure” policy has helped Russia throughout the past year to undermine the influence of Iran and its Shia militias and strengthen its positions on the ground. The deterioration of Iran’s economy, under a set of sanctions, including its crucial oil exports, by the US has negatively affected Iranian allies and proxies in the region, including Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Iran also seems unable to maintain its energy supplies to the Syrian regime or payments for Russian oil to Damascus, which have been covered by Iran.

But since pulling out of Syria, Trump is giving some relief and more space for Iran’s allies to score strategic gains on the ground, eyeing the oil fields in Kurdish held areas.

Why Iran doesn’t want US troops in Syria?

Because of the strategic corridor which links Iran with Lebanon on the Mediterranean Sea, through Iraq and Syria.

President Trump has vowed to push against Iran expanding influence in the region in his bid to ensure Israel’s security and the interests of his allies in the Gulf. But the drawdown from Syria is expected to give Iran a free ride in the country and a chance to entrench its interests in yet another strategic area.

Iran also sees the Turkish incursion in the northeast an opportunity for a permanent deal between Assad and the Kurds. Moreover, Tehran aims to seize the moment and try to convince Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to open up to Assad, sighting more legitimacy for his regime on the international stage.

Both Iran and Russia showed interest in reviving the Adana pact between both sides.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister, tweeted earlier this month, prior to the Turkish operation, insisting that: “Achieving peace and fighting terror in Syria will only succeed through respect for its territorial integrity and its people. Adana provides framework for Turkey and Syria – Iran is ready to help.”

What is the Adana pact?

Commonly known as the Adana agreement. It is a security pact signed in 1998 between Turkey and Syria as a legal framework for peacefully establishing security on the Turkish-Syrian border.

According to the agreement, then-Syrian president Hafez al-Assad pledged to shut down the bases of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – which Ankara regards a terrorist group – in Syria and expel its leader Abdullah Ocalan – who is now in a Turkish jail. The pact has been widely seen as the basis for striking a deal that could lead to Turkey’s military and the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) guarding the Turkish-Syrian border through a coordinated effort.

How the US sees the new potential arrangement?

President Trump seems to have no problem with the arrangement. In a tweet this week, Trump said: “...And Assad to protect the land of our enemy? Anyone who wants to assist Syria in protecting the Kurds is good with me, whether it is Russia, China, or Napoleon Bonaparte. I hope they all do great, we are 7,000 miles away!”

Mazloum Abdi, commander of the SDF, said on Thursday after a phone call with the US president that Trump did not object to an agreement between the Kurdish-led forces and the Syrian government.

This means recognising Assad’s regime as the legitimate government of Syria, and giving the nod to a future deal between Syria, whose forces will be deployed along the northern borders, and Turkey. Erdogan said on Friday: “I hope our operation will be the beginning of a peaceful settlement in Syria.”

This week’s five-day ceasefire agreement in northeast Syria, reached between Erdogan and the US vice president Mike Pence, could be the foundation for the new arrangements.

This ceasefire agreement means from the US point “validating what Turkey did and allowing them to annex a portion of Syria and displace the Kurdish population”, according to a US official, familiar with operations in Syria, who spoke to CNN.

The future looks bright for Iran and Russia in the area as a result of Trump’s decisions, according to analysts, but rather grim for the US and the west.