Coronavirus: Will a vaccine certificate be mandatory for all future travel?

Q With the impending hope of vaccination for Covid-19, is it likely that countries will require travellers to have a certificate of vaccination before entry? If so, who will provide this? It will be a nightmare for GP surgeries.

Paul A

A The optimistic news about the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine – and hopefully others – to immunise against coronavirus presents some really tricky medical and moral dilemmas, which spill over into the field of international travel.

Let’s start with where we are. Travellers and host countries are desperate for international travel to resume at scale – not just for leisure, but arguably more importantly for families and friends to be reunited and for business travellers to help repair the profound economic damage wrought by Covid-19 and responses to it.

Nations are also extremely concerned about travellers importing coronavirus, whether taking it out to a destination or bringing it home. That is why we are seeing moves towards mandatory pre-testing in countries such as Spain – which take effect on 23 November and will require a negative PCR test no more than 72 hours before arrival. The principle is: “We’d love to welcome Paul and ensure he has a great time, while benefiting economically from his visit, but we want to be sure that he doesn’t present a danger.”

Initially vaccines, when properly certificated, may well provide an alternative to testing. That is why there have been calls for the UK vaccination programme to be recorded in a way to allow the recipient to demonstrate to the satisfaction of countries worldwide that they are immune to coronavirus. To do otherwise could consume precious resources in either a second (medically unnecessary) set of vaccines or needless testing. The government really needs to be thinking hard about how this will be achieved without putting pressure on GPs and the rest of the health service.

While the first wave of vaccinations is taking place, I predict that TOV – “test or vaccine” – will become fairly standard for international travel. In time, though, Covid vaccination will be mandatory for most journeys abroad. But that is several years off.

Q My partner lives in New York, and in normal times we see each other every three months or so. We haven’t seen each other since I returned to the UK in January. I am due to fly to New York at the end of December for a month. We are not married and therefore access is looking tough. Do you have any information on impending changes to the admission situation?

Name supplied

A Tens of thousands of couples who have long-distance, transatlantic relationships have had a wretched year. As no doubt you found right through until early 2020, it was perfectly feasible to plan to meet, say, four times a year, with reliably low air fares and easy access – simply using the standard Esta (“Electronic System for Travel Authorisation”) online form to get permission for multiple visits within two years.

It is eight months President Trump proclaimed “entry into the United States is suspended for most individuals, other than US citizens and lawful permanent residents, who have been physically present within the United Kingdom … within14 days of travel to the United States.”

Controversially, the UK has imposed no such restriction on visitors from the US beyond the standard two weeks of self-isolation. For the avoidance of doubt, your partner could quarantine with you, and you would have no need to self-isolate too. I can fairly confidently predict that by early December, arriving travellers will be able to halve, more or less, the time in quarantine as a result of the “test-and-release” scheme that the UK government is proposing: take a test about a week after arrival and, if negative, leave isolation. Your partner can re-enter the US after their visit.

Regrettably, I can offer no confidence about travel in the opposite direction. With every day that transition to the Biden administration is obstructed by President Trump, the prospects dwindle for an early reversal of the no-entry proclamation. In an ideal world, your partner would join you – but I recognise there are all kinds of reasons why that may not work. It would be marvellous if the ban were lifted to allow people to be reunited for Christmas and the new year. But I would not put the chances above 50-50 for now.

Q Any update on the reduction of quarantine time for UK? I keep seeing news it will be reduced to five days but nothing confirmed?

Deborah P

A Targeted quarantine for arrivals to the UK (initially from China, Iran and parts of Italy and South Korea) began in February 2020. It was abolished in mid-March, as the spread of coronavirus accelerated around the world. In May, the government made clear it was planning to impose two weeks of quarantine for arrivals from every country in the world (except Ireland). This came into effect on 8 June and has prevailed for most nations ever since. Unsurprisingly, it has had the effect of stifling all-but-essential travel to affected destinations.

Since general quarantine was first leaked, the travel industry has lobbied for testing on arrival and/or after a certain length of time as an alternative to 14 days of self-isolation. The government insisted for months that there was no viable alternative to arrivals staying indoors for two weeks – relying on a theoretical study published in June for evidence.

Airlines and holiday companies have demanded a different approach based on real-world data. In September the government announced a Global Travel Taskforce charged with “considering how a testing regime for international arrivals could be implemented to boost safe travel to and from the UK”. It is chaired by the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, and the health secretary, Matt Hancock.

The plan was always to report to the prime minister “no later than early November”, which we have to assume has happened. However, last week’s chaos and infighting in Downing Street means that reducing quarantine may not be top of the list of priorities at No 10.

In a speech a week ago, the transport secretary said: “We’ve been making good progress on a ‘test to release’ programme to launch once we’re out of lockdown [in England]. This will consist of a single test for arrivals into the UK, provided by the private sector and at the cost of the passenger.”

So at some point from 3 December, when the current English lockdown ends, we can be fairly confident that “test to release” will be an option. The travel industry desperately hopes it will follow the Irish model of a test five days after arrival, but seven or eight days have also been mooted. It will require an investment by the arriving traveller of around £150, and there are concerns about whether the UK’s current laboratory network will be able to cope with a surge in demand for PCR testing.

In summary, there are still many more questions than answers, but my assumption is that some reduction in quarantine will be feasible before Christmas.

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