Inside Politics: Devoid of ideas

Hello there, I’m Matt Mathers and welcome to The Independent’s Inside Politics newsletter.

There might be an imminent hosepipe ban in the south of England but Rishi Sunak will be keen to pour a bucket of cold water over Tory members tonight to wake them up to what he says are Liz Truss’s uncosted spending pledges. Both candidates go head-to-head in a live TV debate after the foreign secretary won the backing of another high-profile MP and a new poll showed her with a huge lead.

Parliament is not sitting.

Sunak supporter Mel Stride is on Sky News Breakfast at 8.15am

Lib Dem Treasury and business spokesperson Sarah Olney is on Times Radio at 8.35am

Hang in there – it’s almost finished, just over a month to go. After a difficult start to the week, Tory leadership favourite Liz Truss is firmly back in the driving seat in the race to replace Boris Johnson. The foreign secretary last night received two major boosts in the form of an endorsement from Sajid Javid, the former health secretary, and a Conservative Home poll of party members giving her a 32 per cent lead over rival Rishi Sunak.

The ConHome survey broadly tallies up with the YouGov one published yesterday. Some polling experts say that Tory members can be difficult to reach and are therefore treating these surveys with a degree of caution – as any survey should be. But all of the polls published so far have one thing in common: they have Truss is in the lead. With each passing day in this race it is becoming increasingly difficult to see anything other than a Truss victory.

Sajid Javid, who previously held the chancellor and health briefs, has apparently seen enough and rowed in behind Truss last night ahead of a hustings event in Cardiff, where both candidates used their platforms to tear into Labour’s Wales first minister, Mark Drakeford. In an op-ed declaring his support for Truss, Javid compared the foreign secretary to Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Regan, describing her as “fiscally disciplined”. Has he been following this campaign at all? Team Truss has racked up tens of billions in spending commitments and still hasn’t articulated convincingly how they will be paid for – at a time when the country is facing its most perilous economic moment in generations. And there was also the small matter of the U-turn on her flagship “war on Whitehall waste” policy.

The frequent comparisons to Thatcher, who resigned as prime minister more than 30 years ago, will go down well with members but are indicative of a party that, after more than a decade in power, is completely devoid of ideas and fresh thinking. Sunak – who last night hinted at an inheritance tax cut if he wins – and Truss go head-to-head in a live TV debate on Sky News tonight after the last one was called off due to the host fainting. Truss is likely to face fresh questions over her “Fizz with Liz” campaign events after a leaked email appeared to show she did not declare thousands of pounds spent on schmoozing Tory MPs in the run-up to her bid to succeed Boris Johnson.

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The biggest priority for whoever replaces Johnson will be to tackle soaring inflation and to get the economy growing – two themes that dominated last night’s hustings in Cardiff.

And that task is becoming ever more difficult as the Bank of England looks set to raise interest rates later today to their highest level in nearly three decades, from 1.25 per cent to 1.75 per cent in a bid to tackle runaway prices.

The Bank is scheduled to make an announcement around midday and is expected to issue another dire warning that inflation – currently running at 9 per cent – could peak at 15 per cent in the coming months, as Russia puts the squeeze on gas supplies to the continent which will, in turn, drive up prices at home.

The Resolution Foundation, a think tank focused on living standards, agreed that it was now “plausible” that inflation could hit the 15 per cent mark – the highest level since 1980. Low to middle-income families are likely to face disproportionately higher living cost levels for the foreseeable future, the foundation said.

It expects inflation to remain persistently high, despite some tentative signs that upward pressure on prices may be beginning to ease.

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Javid compares Truss to Thatcher and Reagan.

“As a trendy university student I had portraits of my two favourite Conservatives on my study wall: Thatcher and Reagan. There is a time for leaders in the Thatcherite mould — clear-headed, fiscally disciplined. And there are times for Reaganites — freedom-loving, sunny and optimistic. Our party and our country now needs the best of both instincts.”

New Statesman senior associate editor Rachel Cunliffe says Truss U-turn shows she is engaging in post-truth politics.

“Liz Truss is vying to be Boris Johnson’s successor and it’s clear which lessons she has learnt from past prime ministers.”