Inside Politics: Polls and open goals

Hello there, I’m Matt Mathers and welcome to The Independent’s Inside Politics newsletter.

Love Island may have finished but the Tory infatuation with Liz Truss is just getting started. But is members’ adoration for the foreign secretary as deep and as broad as first thought? A new poll suggests perhaps not. The foreign secretary has vowed to slash public sector pay and secured the backing of another high-profile MP last night as the two candidates cracked on at a hustings event in Exeter. Team Sunak insist their man can still avoid getting pied come September.

Parliament is not sitting.

Kerry McCarthy, the shadow climate change minister, is on Sky News Breakfast at 8.05am.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, Truss supporter and Brexit opportunities minister, is on Times Radio at 8.23am.

Penny Mordaunt, the former Tory leadership hopeful and trade minister, has become the latest, very brave MP to row in behind Liz Truss when the race looks like it has already been run. Or has it? A poll carried out last week, reported in The Times on Monday night, has the foreign secretary just five points ahead of rival Rishi Sunak in the race to replace Boris Johnson.

The survey, conducted early last week by an Italian firm (Team Truss says it was not commissioned by them), says that 9 per cent of Tory members remain undecided and is in stark contrast to a previous YouGov poll which put Truss on an apparently unassailable lead in the battle for No 10. The findings of the new poll appear to tally up with what the former chancellor’s team has been saying for some time: that much of the support for Truss is soft and that they continue to get a good response on the doorstep.

In announcing her support for Truss last night, Mordaunt, whose people accused Team Truss of “dirty tricks” earlier in the race, said she had “faith” that the foreign secretary could “clobber” the Tories’ opponents (Labour, who days ago soared to a 13 point lead) at future elections by not only holding onto seats but winning new ones, too.

The word “faith” is the operative one here because most of the evidence so far shows that it is, in fact, the former chancellor who would fare better against the opposition at a future general election. Mordaunt – and the others who have backed Truss in recent days – appear to have prioritised the short-term “sugar rush”, as Sunak might say, of a job in government and a ministerial car over winning the next election.

Keir Starmer is on the record as saying he wouldn’t fear either candidate at the ballot box. But party strategists and advisers privately admit they would much rather face Truss, who last night revealed plans to cut pay for public sector workers – including teachers and nurses – outside the wealthy southeast in a bid to save £11bn.

Of course, this pledge – and others made during the campaign (her promise to cut crime by 20 per cent looks undeliverable) – are aimed at the Tory membership and might never see the light of day if Truss does enter number 10. But if it does it would do little to shore up the cracks appearing in Tory support across red wall in the north of England.

open image in gallery

England’s Lionesses were joined by huge crowds in Trafalgar Square yesterday as the team continued its celebrations after beating Germany to win the Euro final on Sunday night.

Calls grew for a bank holiday to celebrate the national success but were again knocked back by a minister and then officially by No 10, which said it would cost too much but that the PM supports honours for the players.

Labour accused Johnson of missing an “open goal” to build on the legacy of women’s football, after the historic victory was hailed as a watershed moment for equality. The party’s sports spokeswoman Lucy Powell urged Johnson to change his mind, arguing that a bank holiday would give clubs the chance for clubs to promote the game to women and girls.

“The country is rightly proud of our winning Lionesses, who have shown the best of British,” she said.“The Conservatives have a terrible record of building on our sports stars’ success with a real and lasting legacy. Ministers must ensure we do not miss the open goal opportunity their success provides in cementing the women’s game.

“This is a potential game-changing moment to capitalise on the momentum behind women’s football and ensure young girls who are inspired to pick up a ball today can be the next Lionesses.”

Former leadership hopeful Penny Mordaunt backs Truss.

“Who is going to hold seats and win back councils and who most embodies the vision and values the British public had in their heads and in their hearts when they voted in 2016 and 2019? At the start of this final phase of the contest, I didn’t know the answer to those questions. But I’ve seen enough to know who I’m going to put my faith in. And that is Liz Truss.”

BBC Scotland editor James Cook questions Truss’s approach to Scottish independence.

“Ms Truss’s comments will be cheered by some opponents of independence who have long argued for a more muscular unionism. Maybe it will work. But previous Conservative administrations rejected this strategy because they feared it could actually drive up support for secession.”