Nations League provides crucial test for England with Qatar World Cup on horizon

England on Saturday start a mammoth international break, with a seemingly interminable four games, and yet the most important match will still be one they are not involved in.

Gareth Southgate’s squad will gather to watch Sunday’s play-off between Wales and Ukraine that decides the last place in their World Cup group. It will be welcome given the amount of downtime the players have over these two weeks, which is why it could also offer the opportunity to provide some education on the more problematic side of Qatar 2022.

It is fair to say that more than a few of them have been echoing Kevin De Bruyne’s comments asking why they have to face four matches at the end of such a long season. Some of that is because of the change to the calendar enforced by Qatar, but it also means that the World Cup – for all the charm of the Nations League – is what this break is really all about.

Its length represents that of a rugby-style international camp, so Southgate can properly work on what he wants, and any new ideas he might have.

That’s all the more important given this is the penultimate break before the World Cup itself, which is why the manager naturally resisted any arguments to rest players after long club seasons.

“Being one of the leaders in the team, you try and set a good example, make some of the inexperienced players realise every session is important,” Harry Kane said. “Every meeting is important. The tournament will be here before we know it.”

All of those sessions, meetings and games ultimately inform the “bible” that Southgate and his staff build up for tournaments, which will directly influence decisions as finely tuned as how many minutes certain players should have before knockout games. That’s the meticulousness of this England set-up.

It’s possibly a benefit, then, that this break offers games against three very different types of opposition.

There is a Hungary side who are one of international football’s mid-tier, and probably closer to what will be faced in the group – at least as regards Iran and the USA. England may even face two versions of Hungary in this break, starting with the game in Budapest on Saturday. There could be the more open home team that was witnessed in September’s controversial 4-0 win in Budapest, and then a more defensive away side at Molineux, one more reflective of their general approach.

“The match in Budapest was very different to anything I have seen from Hungary for two or three years,” Southgate said. “It was an unusual performance, normally they are very difficult to score against.”

That Budapest game has also ensured that this one will be played in front of only schoolchildren, reflecting growing issues for football and England, especially since the Molineux match against Italy will have the same restrictions. While Hungary’s punishment is from the racist behaviour of fans inside the stadium, the Football Association’s is largely because of behaviour outside.

It has fostered extra tension around this break, with the FA being proactively vigilant about the prospect of trouble for Tuesday’s match in Munich. The Germany game is the first big away trip that will allow fans since the pandemic, and that at a fixture that brought considerable fan trouble in both 2016 and 2017. That had already been a source of increasing concern for the FA, and a repeat of any issues will see England forced to play another home game behind closed doors in future. It all runs alongside mounting public debate about pitch invasions and unrest surrounding football.

The Euro 2020 final may well come to be seen as an unwanted historical bookend in that regard, and it certainly weighs over everything now.

Italy have declined since their victory in that game, having failed to qualify for the World Cup, and on Wednesday got well beaten by Argentina in the “Finalissima”. It may just be a natural hangover from winning Euro 2020, or may just reflect the intensity of a tournament that saw them come together to be better than the sum of their parts. Either way, it means that Italy almost represent the sort of second-tier team England are more than likely to play in the earlier knockout rounds, should they get that far. Roberto Mancini’s side certainly have something to prove.

That in itself points to the state of flux that international football is in, with this World Cup becoming increasingly difficult to predict.

The field seems open, with few truly top-level teams. Brazil and Argentina do suddenly look resurgent, it must be said, but so do Germany.

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They did have a promising squad at Euro 2020 only to suffer from the fact the Jogi Loew era had clearly run its course. Hansi Flick has restored their verve, just as he did with Bayern Munich.

It means Tuesday’s meeting in Munich may be a fixture between the two sides who go into this World Cup in the most optimum circumstances. England may even have the best possible profile of squad, and consequently the best opportunity of finally winning a competition.

While so many sides are at the start of a cycle (Spain, Brazil) and so many others arguably at the end of one (France, Belgium), Southgate has many players going into their prime with the important advantage of proper tournament experience as a group.

That obviously increases their chances of victory. It also increases the pressure.

That is why this break is so important to Southgate. It certainly isn’t an end-of-season formality to be endured for the England manager and his staff.

It is about ensuring nothing is left undone for November, that every area is maximised.

These four games will see a lot of movement between 3-4-3 and 4-3-3, depending on the circumstances.

It will also allow Southgate to address unsolved issues in the team. Left-back, or left-wingback, is still dependent on stand-ins. On the other side, there are so many options (but consequently more doubt) about Trent Alexander-Arnold.

While his attacking qualities are obvious, and the debate about his defensive ability has become tedious, the more pertinent point is that Southgate has very different ideas about what a right-back should be than Jurgen Klopp does. It is more about protection, which is why the manner of Real Madrid’s goal in Paris could be almost as important to Alexander-Arnold’s World Cup as it was to the Champions League final. Southgate can’t abide that lack of awareness.

In between, the manager will hope that the different setting of an England squad will restore Harry Maguire’s confidence, so a more stable defence can perhaps allow a more creative attack.

It is one of the complications that comes from so much depth. Southgate has that many options that he can’t possibly have a fixed team.

More work has been planned with Phil Foden’s positioning, but he will now miss the Hungary game with Covid. That may allow Jack Grealish to start a game, an increasingly infrequent occurrence.

The striker position of course remains a certainty, probably for all four games. That is because Kane so wants Wayne Rooney’s England goalscoring record. With the Tottenham Hotspur star one off 50, and four behind Rooney’s total, the Derby County manager has been stating his hope that Kane breaks it before the World Cup.

It means he is one player that really wants these four games.

That is rare in the squad, but Southgate will ensure that isn’t an issue. That’s because these games are now a rare opportunity to have this team ready for the fixtures that matter more than any in world football.