Inside Politics: Johnson to ignore Tory rebels and hike NI to pay for social care

At last, there is some more prolonged sunshine in what has felt like the most miserable summer in living memory. Temperatures are soaring across the country, and Boris Johnson is continuing to feel the heat over his social care funding plan, with reports this morning saying one frontbencher is considering their position over the tax hike. Elsewhere, there has been a Brexit “sausage war” truce and fears of another Covid lockdown in October.

The Independent has launched a petition urging the UK government to be more ambitious in its plans to take in Afghan refugees. More details below.

Our chief political commentator John Rentoul on what to look out for today:

The first in-person meeting of the cabinet this year will be a big event as ministers are asked to sign off on a manifesto-busting tax rise to pay for the NHS backlog and a social care plan. Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, will take questions in the Commons, followed by the second reading (the general principle stage) of the Elections Bill to bring in voter ID checks. Busy day of select committees, including an inquest into this year’s A-levels, GCSEs and Btecs. Priti Patel, the home secretary, will chair a meeting of G7 interior ministers at Lancaster House.

Coming up:

-SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford on Sky News at 8.20am

-Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi on ITV Good Morning Britain at 8.30am

Afghanistan: You, our readers, have already shown your strength of feeling in letters and on social media about the growing Afghan crisis. Thousands of you have already signed our petition. Here’s a chance to have your voice heard by adding your signature. We thank you for your support. To sign the petition click here.

BO JO’S TAX HIKE: Social care funding again dominates several front pages this morning as Johnson prepares to set out his plan to parliament, with a 1.25 per cent hike in national insurance widely expected. Despite growing opposition – including from “red wall” Tory MPs – the PM will press ahead with the move. “We must act now to ensure the health and care system has the long term funding it needs to continue fighting Covid and start tackling the backlogs, and end the injustice of catastrophic costs for social care,” he will tell MPs later.

RESIGNATION THREAT: The papers are full of speculation about what the final detail could include. The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg hears the new tax might be paid by pensioners if they are still working, which could go some way in helping the PM win over critics. The Mail reports the same, adding the policy will be branded the “health and social care levy”. One Conservative frontbencher has told The Guardian they are considering their position over the move. Meanwhile, Keir Starmer has written to the PM confirming Labour will oppose the plan, although there is still scant detail on what the party would do instead. This is still very much a live issue and worth watching as the day progresses.

FUNDING BOOST: Amid the furore over how to fund social care, there was some good news for the NHS, which has been given an additional £5.4bn to help it recover from the Covid pandemic and clear patient waiting lists, which are at staggeringly high levels. Some of the funding will be used to help clear that backlog, some allocated to improving infection control in hospitals, and some to keep patients and staff better protected against the virus among other priorities. Johnson said the money would go “straight to the frontline” and provide treatments people “aren’t getting quickly enough”. Health leaders welcomed the move as a good start but said more funding will be needed in future. Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, and Saffron Cordery, deputy chief executive of NHS Providers, said £10bn would still be needed on an annual basis for the next three years to avoid patient services being cut.

FRESH LOCKDOWN FEARS: In not entirely unrelated and ominous-sounding news, ministers are drawing up plans for an October “firebreak” Covid lockdown should hospitalisations continue at their current level and threaten to overload the NHS, a senior government scientist has told the i. The Sage member tells the paper the UK is about to enter “an extended peak” of infections and hospitalisations, which are in danger of overwhelming the NHS as winter approaches. According to the latest available data, there are 7,606 patients in hospital with over 1,000 of those in ventilation beds. New cases are on the rise although deaths are going down, and more than 43 million people have had both doses of a vaccine.

SAUSAGE WAR TRUCE: New checks and red tape for trade across the Irish Sea – including a ban on the sale of chilled meats – will be delayed again, the government has said. David Frost confirmed on Monday further extensions to post-Brexit “grace periods”, as he looks to secure concessions from Brussels on how the cross-border terms are operated. In a written statement to parliament, the Brexit minister said London would be extending the current conditions to “provide space for potential further discussions” with the EU.

‘INCAPABLE OF LEADERSHIP’: Johnson has been accused by Starmer of being “incapable of international leadership”, as he described people eligible for evacuation left behind in Afghanistan as a “national disgrace”. The Labour leader’s remarks came as the prime minister defended the 20-year intervention in the region, insisting the armed forces enabled millions of girls to go to school while protecting the UK from terrorism. Speaking after Mr Johnson provided an update to MPs, Sir Keir claimed the government did not have a plan for to “get everybody out” of the country, who remain eligible for sanctuary in Britain, following the closure of Kabul international airport last week. “There is no international agreement on resettlement of Afghan refugees,” the Labour leader said. “We have a prime minister incapable of international leadership, just when we need it most”.

“It doesn’t really seem to me reasonable that people who are going to work in my own constituency in east Lancashire, probably on lower wages than many other areas of the country, will pay tax to support people to keep hold of their houses in other parts of the country where house prices may be much higher.”

Tory MP and leader of parliament’s Northern Research Group Jake Berry on PM’s social care funding plan.

“Last thing on social care tonight (promise) - hear whispers the new levy might be paid by pensioners if they are still working - unlike normal NI - a lot of vital detail on all of this to come tmrw.”

BBC News political editor Laura Kuenssberg on tax hike.

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