Can Boris Johnson stop a new Scottish independence referendum if Nicola Sturgeon triumphs again next year?

No one knows if we will be free to go on holiday next year, or to pubs without restrictions, or still be in the grip of a deep recession – but one thing in politics appears certain.

It is that, come May, Nicola Sturgeon will be crowned the Queen of Scotland again and banging on Boris Johnson’s door, waving a powerful mandate for a fresh independence referendum.

If the SNP is handed a majority at Holyrood, the Scottish public will also have voted for the chance to break up “the world’s most successful union” – through what is dubbed “Indyref2” – so surely the prime minister will have to yield?

There is no doubt he is seriously rattled, forced to focus more and more on the tartan peril, even amid the extraordinary challenges of Covid-19 and the Brexit debacle.

The only weapon he has – the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, the only Tory not hated in Scotland it seems – has been dispatched, waving his wallet with a vow to keep the cash flowing to “every corner of the UK”.

It will not be enough, of course. The ignoring of Scots’ opposition to Brexit and what is seen as Mr Johnson’s calamitous handling of the pandemic will combine to power the SNP bandwagon.

David Cameron believed the issue had to be confronted, in the narrow squeak of the 2014 referendum – but the current occupant of No 10 is desperate not to do so.

The key difference is that – where the unionists appeared certain to win back in early 2014 – this time round, the polls say independence has stolen a lead of up to 10 points.

Come May, Mr Johnson will calculate that, not only can he get away with saying “No”, there may even be advantages for the Conservatives when he does.

His party has revived in Scotland by the constitutional question overshadowing all else, displacing Labour as the second party by scooping up the votes of alarmed unionists.

Furthermore, the lesson of Catalonia’s independence referendum ballot after Spain dismissed the result – public support has sunk since – may leave Edinburgh with nowhere else to go.

Of course, it will be hugely messy. Scotland’s highest court will be asked to rule that London’s consent for a referendum is not needed. Brussels could be asked to recognise a poll if Downing Street refuses.

Nevertheless, an angry stalemate is a better bet than an early Indyref2 – even if, in the long run, that makes independence even more likely.