Will a third runway at Heathrow ever be built?
The split between ‘green Labour’ and ‘growth Labour’ MPs will keep airport expansion in doubt, writes John Rentoul – as will electoral self-interest
The history of the plan for a third runway at Heathrow is the history of two divided parties. It was first proposed by Geoff Hoon as transport secretary in Gordon Brown’s government in 2009. The divisions in the Labour cabinet had been overcome by attaching tough environmental conditions to the plan, but the wider Labour Party continued to be split.
With climate change an increasing concern in the party – and in the population as a whole – it seemed to many to be the wrong priority.
David Cameron as leader of the opposition capitalised on this unease by coming out against Heathrow expansion the year before. His concern for the environment was bolstered by the number of marginal seats in and around west London that would be affected – and by his attempt to present the Conservative Party as green, youthful and modern.
Wasn’t Ed Miliband in Gordon Brown’s government?
The younger Miliband was the first secretary of state for energy and climate change, but he was the architect of the cabinet compromise. Chris Mullin, a Labour backbencher and diarist, recalled a conversation with him in 2009.
“As I was leaving this evening Ed Miliband, climate change secretary, bent my ear about tomorrow’s vote on a third runway for Heathrow. ‘The author of A Very British Coup [Mullin’s 1982 novel] wouldn’t vote with the Tories, would he?’
“I explained to young Ed, who despite his present eminence hasn’t been with us all that long, that there is not a Tory lobby and a Labour one, but an Aye and a No Lobby – and yes I would be voting for the Tory motion since it reflected my views.
“He then attempted to persuade me that expansion was conditional on the toughest emission constraints in the world and they would be legally binding.
“To which I protested the airlines would find a way round whatever constraints he saw fit to impose. Whereupon he walked off, shaking his head in disbelief at my naivety.”
What happened under the Tories?
Andrew Adonis, Hoon’s successor as transport secretary, said: “If we had won the [2010] election we would have built the third runway at Heathrow. But Cameron showed shocking opportunism by cancelling it. We could have had one of the biggest infrastructure projects in Europe. It would have helped us out of recession.”
Although if Labour had had to rely on Liberal Democrat support after the 2010 election, the project probably wouldn’t have gone ahead, because the Lib Dems were the “greenest” of the three main parties.
Cameron’s opposition to the expansion lasted until he was returned as prime minister of a Tory government no longer relying on Lib Dem support. By then, George Osborne, the chancellor, persuaded him that growth was more important than greenery.
The Tories restarted the scheme, despite their own divisions – it was opposed by many, including Boris Johnson paying a visit to Afghanistan at short notice in order to avoid the 2018 vote in the Commons. In the seven years since slow progress has been made.
Why do some say it will never happen?
Johnson, a late convert to green politics, said in 2012 when he was mayor of London, that the third runway at Heathrow “simply will not happen”. The main reason for thinking this is that 30 per cent of all the people in Europe who are affected by aircraft noise live near Heathrow. The airport is unusual not just in Europe but the world in being surrounded by an urban and semi-urban population. There are just too many hundreds of thousands of voters who live too close to the airport. They have votes, and many of these places are now represented by Labour MPs who did not expect to find themselves in parliament.
The green arguments can be fought over forever, but the decisive argument is likely to be electoral self-interest.
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