How will record early voting turnout affect the US election result?

Could Joe Biden already be the 46th president of the United States?

Technically, no. Around 50 million of the roughly 140 million Americans eligible to vote have already cast their ballots, either by post or in person (where allowed), and even if they all voted Democrat, Mr Biden would still not become president. 

Of course that’s not quite how it works. The Biden campaign will be hoping that these early votes will be disproportionately Democrat, and “bake in” the commanding poll leads he had in the run up to the first presidential debate on 29 September, and, even more, in the immediate aftermath of the president’s poor performance. Since then, Mr Biden’s lead, nationally and in swing states has been squeezed somewhat, and Donald Trump will have exceeded low expectations in the last debate, for what it’s worth.

Those 50 million represent a record-breaking number – already well ahead of the same point in 2016. It points to a very high turnout overall, which is at least a good sign of democratic engagement. But are they disproportionately for Biden? In some swing states, where data on registered affiliation is available they are, by about two to one in Florida for example.  

Yet early voting is not necessarily concentrated on key states. Some, such as Florida, indeed, are actually showing less early voting than in 2016 – Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona are similar. Pennsylvania has around the same trend of early votes as in 2016. But others are more marked than in 2016, and very possibly a help to Mr Biden, including the populous states of Texas and Illinois.  

The higher turnout can be attributed directly and indirectly to the Covid crisis. Some 34 million of the 50 million are early votes, perhaps from people who wish to stay at home. Because of public health concerns, more states are permitting more postal voting, and 10 states are sending out ballots this year automatically rather than by request – though only one battleground state, Nevada, is new to the practice. Early voting person is also more widely available.  

The Trump campaign can draw some reassurance from the fact that about two-thirds of voters have not yet voted, and a pro-Trump “red wave” is expected to descend on polling stations on 3 November to nullify any pro-Biden effect. Trumpsters will also hope that the allegations about Hunter Biden will gain more traction, and that the many rallies will motivate the very loyal Trump base.  

So even if the early votes go Mr Biden’s way, they may not do so where he needs them most, and there is still much to play for in the battleground contests. Even the weather, a traditional driver of turnout on polling day, will be almost comically split on 3 November, for example in Florida between excellent sunny conditions in the (Biden-leaning) far south of the state and an inclement rainy day in the northern (Trump-leaning) districts.  

It’s not over.