How British politics will change in 2021

What will politics be like in 2021? Not quite same old, same old. Brexit will fade, at long last. It’s in the interests of most of the parties to “draw a line under it”, as the cliche goes, given the trouble it’s (mostly) caused the politicians, and the fact the public is heartily bored by it. It will now be Labour’s turn to be divided, as we saw in the recent Commons vote on the free trade deal. At every level Labour voters, members and MPs who were Remainers, or at least some of them, will morph into Rejoiners, and demand a commitment to go back into the EU. Keir Starmer will hope to unite the party under a vague commitment to build on the “base” of the current deal to build a “closer” partnership with the EU, but no more. Even if Brexit turns disastrous – and there will inevitably be some chaos, closures and job losses, it’s unlikely to stimulate any great appetite among the voters for another great national debate on Europe.  

As a political virus, Brexit will, though, mutate in unpredictable ways. It will, for example, start to figure even more prominently in the argument about Scottish independence, or “Scexit” as it may yet come to be known. After all, most of the arguments about sovereignty and taking back control deployed by the SNP have quite a Brexity feel to them, just as the case against trade barriers and being better together have an echo of the Remain campaign. In any case, Nicola Sturgeon seems set to win a landslide victory and one explicitly seeking a mandate for a second independence referendum. If London just says “no”, there will indeed be a bitterly divisive constitutional crisis, and one that probably can’t be resolved by the Supreme Court. As in Ireland a century ago, there will be many in Scotland who will question the legitimacy of the Westminster government, and will seek ways to resist, though through peaceful political protest, resistance and disobedience. Most of the English, it has to be said, would have no objection to Scotland going its own way; the dispute would be with the militantly Unionist government that refuses to even talk to Sturgeon.  

In Ireland, the possibility of a United Ireland by the centenary of independence in 2022 seems to have receded. The threat to the Good Friday Agreement from the UK Internal Market bill and a no-deal Brexit has receded, thanks to EU and American pressure. With that the possibility of a fresh border poll and renewed Republican violence has also been averted. The resentment is more on the Unionist side, with the new economic border between Ulster and Great Britain, but they have long since lost that particular struggle.  

Which of course leaves these islands with Covid. Despite everything, it has not been as politicised, at least as far as support for the Conservatives goes. The Dominic Cummings scandal certainly damaged the prime minister’s personal ratings, and Labour is now a more credible opposition with competent leadership; but Covid has not yet proved a game changer, gifting Labour a 10-point lead in the polls, say.  

That could shift in 2021, for two reasons. First, the eventual withdrawal of business support (plus the disruptive effects of Brexit) will trigger a sharp downturn and steep rise in unemployment across the country. Inevitably that will dent the governing party’s popularity.  

Second, there is still plenty of scope for ministers to make a mess of the vaccine rollout. Such high hopes have been invested in a rapid delivery that they are almost certain to be disappointed, even if the logistics systems and supplies of vaccines were all perfect. The track record in testing and equipment suggests that logistics and supply are the weakest point in a generally poor official response to the crisis. As winter turns to spring and if the new variant of the virus takes hold before mass vaccination has protected the public, then this failure could be the one that provokes a real political backlash. There will also be a greater degree of lockdown fatigue, after a year of more or less continuous restraint. Some on the right of the Conservative party and figures such as Nigel Farage will be making a case for a radical change in policy.

There will also be the unpredictable events that, like the pandemic, can push the government even further off course. But, in all probability, there will be important elections in 2021, not least in Scotland and London, and to that extent democratic norms will be restored. But just like the effects of the disease on its victims, Britain will find that emerging from Covid in 2021 will be slower and more painful than expected.