Donald Trump’s reaction to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago helps both him and Joe Biden

It has been quite a seven days for Donald Trump. This past Monday his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida was subject to a search by the FBI and by Friday a judge had unsealed the warrant authorising that search – revealing that agents removed 11 sets of classified documents as part of an investigation into possible violations of the Espionage Act.

Trump – who has denied any wrongdoing and has said the items were declassified – responded as you would expect he might. He suggested, without any basis, that the FBI could have planted evidence. A Trump lawyer, Alina Habba, also said on Fox on Tuesday: “I’m concerned that they may have planted something; you know, at this point, who knows?” That, along with various other speculation on the search from Trump-friendly talking heads, meant we were following a pattern similar to that which we saw the former president follow in the White House – try and win the air-time war by claiming as much as you can that these actions are politically motivated.

The search did have the effect of rallying many Republicans to his side, using words like “overreach” and “banana republic”. Kevin McCarthy, the top Republican in the House of Representatives, even warned the US attorney general, Merrick Garland, to “preserve your documents and clear your calendar”. A way of letting it be known that if Republicans win control of the House in November’s midterm elections, they will be holding hearings into the conduct of the Justice Department.

Trump also got somewhat of a boost in polling of Republicans in the wake of the search; a Morning Consult poll found that 57 per cent of those asked would vote for Trump if the primary for the GOP presidential candidate for 2024 was held today. That is up from 53 per cent in mid-July (Trump is yet to announce his candidacy but has strongly hinted at it).

So what has the search done for Joe Biden? Given the result of the election in 2020, Trump gathering momentum would probably also help Biden. “As Trump’s stock rises in the Republican Party, so does Biden’s [with Democrats]”, Brad Howard, a lobbyist and former aide to members of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition in the House, told NBC News. “If President Trump is still a factor, that is a continued benefit for President Biden and his case for renomination.”

The current president has refrained from commenting on the search, given there is an active investigation, preferring to let Justice Department officials do the talking. That would appear to be a sensible strategy as it reinforces the contrast with how Trump acted when he was in the White House – actively admonishing such officials about the political “witch hunt” he thought he was facing.