What will CPAC tell us about the future of Trump and the Republican Party?

The Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, is a sort of right-wing equivalent of those Socialist International movements that used to foster fraternal links between left-wing parties around the world (and which inevitably fell into factionalism).

The CPAC similarly has no formal role as a quasi-political party, but it basically acts as a loose grouping of like-minded social conservatives, economic liberals within the US Republican Party. It holds an annual get-together, this year virtually and physically in Orlando, Florida. Though primarily an American-focused event, it has also welcomed the likes of Nigel Farage and Australian premier Scott Morrison, and international CPAC meetings have been convened in Australia, Brazil and Japan. As conservative attitudes and policies have grown more prevalent within the US and indeed around the world since the CPAC was first convened in 1974, so has the CPAC grown in influence and importance, peaking during the Trump presidency.

Today, the CPAC meets as a body at a crossroads. Is it to continue to be centred within the mainstream Republican Party, as it has been since Ronald Reagan delivered the first keynote speech almost a half century ago? Or is it to be a semi-detached Trumpist pressure group, captured by the Maga movement and moving further away from traditional conservatism and closer to alt-right groups and even ultra-constitutional action. As one commentator quipped, should it be renamed “TPAC”?

We will learn something about that when the former president makes his first major public appearance, on Sunday. The reaction to Mr Trump will indicate something about the mood on the right, and whether they really are ready to become part of the Trump campaign in 2024.

The signs, for the Trumpites, are encouraging. Aside from The Donald himself, the conference will hear from Don Jr, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz and other loyalists. There will also be panel sessions with the provocative, if not loaded, themes of: “Other culprits: why judges and media refused to look at the evidence”; “The left pulled the strings, covered it up, and even admits it”; and “Failed states (PA, GA, NV, oh my!).”

Conspicuous by their absence, by contrast, are important figures on the Republican right, but who have been more or less critical of Mr Trump, or at least unsupportive, particularly since the insurgency on 6 January. Mitt Romney and Mitch McConnell, for example, might normally turn up, while Mike Pence and Nikki Haley have declined their invitations.

The incipient fissures within the CPAC, in other words, mirror those in the wider Republican movement, and reflect the battle for its soul and future. If the right is split in 2024, it would probably mean a Democrat win and president Kamala Harris. If they unite under Trump or a Trump-approved candidate they still might not win, because of real or perceived extremism. In which case the right, and CPAC, will face declining relevance for the next decade.

Prior to now, the most disruptive thing that had happened at CPAC was when Sacha Baron Cohen dressed up as Donald Trump with a woman thrown over his shoulder. This year it will be the real Donald Trump.