What does the Capitol siege mean for the Trump dynasty?

So out of character is Donald Trump’s latest appearance that you might be forgiven for thinking it’s some sort of hostage video, or a particularly effective “deep fake” production. Despite the fashion for conspiracy theories, no one is suggesting it is not genuine.  

It is quite a turnaround. Only a few days ago he was urging the “Save America” mob to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue. Reportedly he was “borderline enthusiastic” about the invasion of the Capitol. He declined to order the national guard to intervene, leaving that to Mike Pence. Midway through the disturbances he told the rioters to go home, but also expressed sympathy, repeated the claim that the election was stolen, and told them “we love you”. Now, suddenly, they are guilty of a “heinous act”. Some feel betrayed and bewildered.

Plainly, short of a Pauline conversion, there must have been a degree of coercion at work. The calls for impeachment and the invocation of Article 25 of the construction were mostly performative – there is no time for either. However they are embarrassing and the open challenges to the president have been mounting. The stance of Vice President Pence, for example, firmly constitutional, meant that Trump could not count even on this loyal partner to support him unconditionally. The resignations of aides and cabinet members added to the sense of America in crisis. The deaths of a protester and a police officer surely signalled the time for tantrums and playacting was past.  

But Trump usually listens most to members of his clan. Perhaps the first lady Melania, daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner staged a sort of intervention, or at least proffered some candid advice. Older friends and allies might have spoken up, rather than merely saying what he wanted to hear.

The president has also to consider the future, and the prestige and value of the name Trump in politics, in business and in society. He does not want it trashed.  

His own political future might be unpromising, but he would still like to be a kingmaker, with influence. His daughter and sons might wish to run for office too, for Congress or at state level, and would not wish to lose support because their surname is associated with hate and violence (though Donald Jr seems to be a chip off the old block, revelling in his dad’s possession of the GOP).  

Would commercial partners and wealthy customers be as ready to join in with his property developments or stay at his golf resorts if polite society regards that as tantamount to supporting insurrection? What is the name Trump worth as a brand? Whatever it is, it is probably less than it was a week or two ago.  

Socially too, the family don’t want to be turned into pariahs, disinvited to parties and shunned by their old, often liberal-minded, friends. The Trumps used to be Democrats and friends of the Clintons, after all. Soon, they risk being friends of no one. Money cannot buy everything, and certainly not respect and trust.

Donald Trump, it is fair to say, is a proud man who cares about money and his legacy. His long-term interests, and those of the dynasty, have not been well served by the desperate attempts to hang on to power. In the end, he overreached himself. Now that that struggle is plainly over, he is changing direction, in the hope of salvaging something of his reputation. Maybe he hopes for a pardon from a magnanimous, healing Joe Biden, or from a brief presidency under Pence (if Trump quits), or maybe he will try to pardon himself. In any case he needs to repair the Trump brand. After five years of fire and fury, it may be too late.