Why the aid budget rebellion is Boris Johnson’s biggest headache yet

Will Boris Johnson have to reverse his cuts to foreign aid? The latest recruit to the rebel side is Theresa May, a famously loyal and cautious figure who, as a former premier, cannot have made such a decision lightly. She joins a (mostly) distinguished list of senior figures determined to side with the opposition parties to reverse the reduction in the overseas aid budget from 0.7 per cent to 0.5 per cent. Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Mitchell, Damien Green, Karen Bradley, Johnny Mercer and Stephen Crabb almost constitute a government-in-exile, and they seem sincere in their belief that the historic pledge made and delivered under the Tory governments of David Cameron and Ms May should be protected. They claim to have around 30 allies, which is almost enough to overturn the government’s majority. On the other hand, depending on their mood and developments on the Northern Ireland Protocol, the government might be able to rely on the eight DUP MPs for support. It might be tight, either way, come Monday.

Much will also depend on the views of Speaker Hoyle. The unusual route being taken is an amendment to a bill on a quite different matter – the new hi-tech Advanced Research and Invention Agency. The rebels say the government acted unlawfully in changing the aid target without changing the law; ministers say they are allowed to suspend the target temporarily. In any case, there has not been a parliamentary vote on the matter.

It is certainly a noble cause, but it is also aided by a certain amount, perhaps, of personal political rivalry and pique, for obvious reasons, plus some wider general disquiet about what might be termed the Johnson style of government. The recent rows over cronyism and sleaze, his flat refurbishment and Dominic Cummings’s insider account of the lazy and chaotic response to the Covid pandemic might not have bothered the public much, but will have registered with the MPs. There is the fear that a gradual accretion of sleazy stories will damage the party. However, for now, the Conservatives enjoy a lead over Labour of around 10 per cent, Mr Johnson mostly did well in the May elections, and he has some political credit back in the bank thanks to the “vaccine bounce”. It is also fair to add that the British electorate is not as sympathetic to foreign aid as the political classes tend to be.

But there is obvious disgruntlement, for reasons good and bad. In the life of every government the backbenches eventually fill up with what John Major, no stranger to parliamentary rebellions, termed “the dispossessed and never-possessed” - ex-ministers, wannabe ministers who never will be, the bitter, the frustrated, the disgraced, the vain and the insane. Together they can cause any government trouble on any issue. Although Boris Johnson enjoys a majority of around 80, despite the fact that it was only elected (as a majority administration) in December 2019, and notwithstanding that we’re in the middle of a pandemic, his government is facing another significant defeat in the Commons. He has had to execute a series of U-turns as a result of actual or threatened rebellions, including on free school meals (the Marcus Rashford campaign), and on the £20 uplift to Universal Credit. The restoration of the aid budget would, however, be much the most significant in financial and political terms, and be a much bigger headache than anything he has had to solve since the tumultuous Brexit debates of 2019.

A large working majority, in other words, is no guarantee of anything in today’s Conservative Party, which lost its old “secret weapon” of unswerving loyalty sometime in the 1980s, and which has developed a growing taste for intrigue, revolts and factionalism, on and off, ever since. Indeed, Johnson himself was no paragon of virtue when he was openly undermining Ms May’s attempts to make some sense of Brexit, inside and outside her government. Further ahead, votes on continuing lockdown and on spending on education catch-up will threaten more setbacks. Johnson has a remarkably relaxed attitude to changing policy under pressure, but it is becoming quite the habit these days.