Rishi Sunak now faces four key by-elections – what is at stake?

Rishi Sunak is facing a daunting summer. The prime minister is gearing up for a series of by-elections which will set the stage for next year’s general election – offering the public a chance to give their verdict on the government after 13 years in power.

Two of the four will take place on 20 July, to replace the former Uxbridge and South Ruislip MP Boris Johnson and his ally Nigel Adams in Selby and Ainsty.

The resignation of David Warburton, following his suspension as a Tory MP over harassment and drug abuse allegations, sets up a contest in Somerton and Frome.

And there will eventually be a by-election to replace Nadine Dorries in Mid Bedfordshire, who has not formally resigned more than a week after promising to do so with “immediate effect”.

So how are Sunak’s chances in each of the seats, and what will it mean for the PM – and Labour leader Keir Starmer – if he wins or loses?

Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Labour is expected to claim victory in the former prime minister’s seat, which Johnson won with a 7,210 majority in the 2019 general election. The Conservatives lag Starmer’s Labour by around 15 points in the national polls – and locally the party is missing its star player.

Polling guru Lord Ashcroft predicted Johnson would beat rival Danny Beales, claiming 50 per cent of the vote. But his shock resignation from parliament means local councillor Steve Tuckwell will now fight the contest.

As well as lacking Johnson’s charisma, the party is up against a long-term decline in support among Londoners, eating away at its votes.

Mid Bedfordshire

When Dorries finally resigns, a process she has put on hold to investigate why she did not receive a peerage, Labour and the Liberal Democrats will face a battle to convince voters they are the best bet to beat the Tories.

Labour came second in the seat in 2019, with just over a fifth of the vote. The Liberal Democrats were third with 12.6 per cent. A split in support would pave the way for Festus Akinbusoye, the Conservative candidate to replace Dorries, to hold onto the seat.

And while national polling points to a narrow Conservative win, tactical voting locally could tip the election away from the Tories.

Selby and Ainsty

The North Yorkshire seat is a key test for both Sunak and Starmer in the north of England. Labour is expected to win the contest, and polling expert Martin Baxter, of Electoral Calculus, said it would be “proof that the “red wall is coming back” to the party.

A Labour win would also be bad news for Sunak, putting the seats of northern Tories at risk and energising Johnson allies who believe the former PM was the key to the Conservatives’ success in the red wall.

The Conservatives won with 60 per cent of the vote in 2019, meaning Starmer’s party faces trying to overturn a majority of more than 20,000 voters.

Somerton and Frome

The Somerset seat has been vacated by Warburton who has complained about the “cripplingly glacial pace” of the investigation into his conduct, which has already taken 14 months. The former MP has admitted cocaine use, but denied harassment allegations.

The seat is “a classic position for an insurgent Lib Dem by-election operation”, Baxter said. The party has shown in the past it is “very capable of leveraging these opportunities”, he added.

And Baxter said that the numbers – the Conservatives won with a majority of almost 20,000 in 2019 – “are just a little bit of the story”.

He said that the Liberal Democrats’ performance locally would be stronger than national polling suggests, “plus you’ve got an MP resigning with a cloud over his head”.

Crucially, Baxter said that voters punish parties who force by-elections they deem “unnecessary”. So as well as voters offering their verdict on the state of the country, and the Conservative government, they may well express their discontent at being asked to get out and vote at all.