Will the Russian invasion of Ukraine give Boris Johnson the benefit of MPs ‘rallying round the flag’?

Boris Johnson has warned of a protracted conflict in Ukraine lasting months. As well as transforming the geopolitical landscape, the Russian invasion has big implications for the domestic political scene.

“Normal politics” is largely on hold. Keir Starmer postponed a speech on the economy on Thursday and the government will escape the usual forensic scrutiny on other issues – for a while, at least. Sir Keir, anxious to remind voters Labour is a patriotic party, will want to maintain broad support for the government’s actions on Ukraine rather than carp from the sidelines when the public will expect a united front. But within that framework, the Labour leader will want to leave room to criticise the Conservatives for accepting donations from Russia-linked figures, especially if he judges that UK sanctions do not go far enough.

Of course, this is not a crisis of Johnson’s making. But it will put on the back burner the intense debate among Tory MPs about whether they should oust him. He will benefit from his party’s instincts to “rally round the flag” and its own leader during an international emergency. For now, his backbenchers will give him the benefit of the doubt, a useful ingredient he lost when he made his ill-fated attempt to save Owen Paterson’s skin last November.

War in Europe will eclipse the controversy about Downing Street parties; they might even look relatively small and “old news” in the eyes of some Tories, though many voters might beg to differ. The conflict will dominate the UK political and media agendas in a way that a stalemate with Russian forces camped on Ukraine’s borders did not. The inquiries by the Metropolitan Police and Sue Gray into “partygate” might conclude during the crisis. Even if Mr Johnson is fined, many Tory MPs will be tempted to kick the question of his future into the long grass and postpone their reckoning to another day. His allies will hope indefinitely.

But to win the right to fight another general election, Mr Johnson will need to have a “good war” in his MPs’ eyes. So far, many of them judge that his rhetoric has not been matched by reality. He will need to raise his game to prevent Ukraine becoming another of his many problems rather than an opportunity to show strong, decisive leadership.

Ukraine is not a one-way street for the prime minister. Sanctions against Russia will cause pain at home too – such as higher inflation, petrol, energy and food prices, compounding a cost-of-living crisis the public may blame on their own government rather than Vladimir Putin.