Can Rishi Sunak turn dire Tory poll numbers around?

Rishi Sunak has spent his first few days in Downing Street firefighting the row over Suella Braverman’s appointment and crunching the numbers with chancellor Jeremy Hunt in a bid to balance the government’s books.

But as the prime minister settles back into the No 10 flat this weekend, he may finally have time to digest the Tories’ dire poll numbers and the uphill struggle he faces in getting his party in a position to compete at the next general election.

So far, there is little sign of a Sunak bounce. A poll of polls tracker has Labour 29 points ahead. One YouGov poll after his coronation showed a slight swing back to the Tories, putting Keir Starmer’s party on a mere 51 per cent (the lead narrowed to a trifling 28 points).

The former chancellor’s arrival has not caused voters to forget the sense of political chaos swirling around the party in power and the immense damage done to the economy by Liz Truss’s wild experiment in disruption.

What do voters make of Mr Sunak, personally? More in Common focus group sessions in red-wall seats in the North and Midlands – shared with The Independent this weekend – showed voters remain pretty sniffy about the man running the country.

Many remembered his furlough scheme intervention during Covid. But many were also aware of his huge wealth, his wife’s previous non-dom tax status (as revealed by The Independent), and questioned whether he could understand their financial struggles.

“When you’re well-off and rich like he is, it’s hard to comprehend, say, a £200 gas and electricity bill,” said Mark, who works in sales – adding that Mr Sunak seemed like the kind of guy who had meals served on a silver platter.

Voters in Oldham compared Mr Sunak to a snake, a rat, a “pampered pooch” and Randall Boggs, the baddie from Monsters Inc, when they were asked to liken senior politicians to animals. “He was with Boris then he turned on him, which makes me question if he’s truthful or reliable,” said Lisa, a hairdresser.

However distrustful, there are signs of hope for the prime minister and his new No 10 team. The latest BMG poll gave Labour another whopping lead of 23 points – but also found Mr Sunak was narrowly more trusted than Mr Starmer when it came to the economy and would make a better PM.

It’s a sign that the explosion of anger at the Tories could ease if – and it’s still a big if – the party’s new leader can ease the sense of turmoil and put the economy on a surer footing.

Labour MPs have acknowledged the pinch-me-I’m-dreaming numbers seen in recent weeks are not sustainable and will be brought back down to earth if Sunak sorts out some of the mess left behind by Liz Truss.

Tory MPs accept they could lag behind Labour during 2023, but hope the economy can improve enough to make them competitive in time for a general election in 2024 – with Sunak making clear he intends to wait until late in the parliamentary term.

Tory polling guru Lord Hayward told The Independent: “Conservative MPs will have to grin and bear it for while. You would need a remarkable improvement [in the polls] before Rishi would be tempted to call an early election.”