Will Rishi Sunak sack Dominic Raab over report into bullying claims?

Dominic Raab won’t have enjoyed his Easter break very much. The deputy prime minister has been nervously awaiting the outcome of the independent investigation into allegations that he bullied government staff.

Mr Raab’s political future at the heart of government now hangs on the report by Adam Tolley KC, the independent lawyer tasked by Rishi Sunak to examine a flurry of formal complaints made by civil servants.

Or does it? It has emerged that it won’t be the top barrister’s report that decides Mr Raab’s fate so much as the prime minister’s interpretation of the facts laid out by the lawyer.

Mr Tolley is not expected to offer up any verdict on the justice secretary’s behaviour or any recommendation on potential punishments, keeping his findings strictly to facts – as far as they can be established.

So it will be for Mr Sunak to chew over the detailed account of Mr Raab’s behaviour and decide whether it is unbecoming enough to amount to a breach of the ministerial code of conduct.

Will he sack his close ally? Or gently ask him to resign? Or could the PM decide to tough out the inevitable firestorm of fury from Labour by deciding to keep Raab in place, even if he is found to have behaved pretty badly?

Mr Tolley may not have to deliver a defining judgement, but a lot will depend on just how damning the evidence and lawyerly language proves to be in the report set to come across Mr Sunak’s desk within days.

The outlook would appear to look bleak for Mr Raab. The claims appearing in the press have been plentiful and vivid. The cabinet minister was accused of chucking Pret-A-Manger tomatoes across a room in a “fit of rage” (an episode he denied).

Officials close to Mr Tolley’s probe are reportedly said to have been “shocked” by some of the claims, including staff being sick before meetings with Mr Raab and regularly left in tears.

Even after Mr Raab pleaded for people to keep quiet during the inquiry, the head of the FDA civil service union has been willing to keep speaking out about what he has been told of Mr Raab’s conduct.

Dave Penman said some civil servants have suffered “mental health crises” and have been forced to quit or downgrade Whitehall jobs because they found working with him so difficult.

The drip-drip of claims has led some Tory MPs and officials to predict he is “toast” at the end of the inquiry. But expectations at Westminster are so often turned on their head, and Mr Raab may still have hope that the findings are ambiguous enough to offer him a lifeline.

Mr Raab, remember, has denied all allegations of bullying and says he behaved “professionally at all times” in his various ministerial roles. In carefully-crafted remarks, he said in February that he would resign if “an allegation of bullying is upheld”.

The deputy PM will be well aware that trying to define “bullying” is not the independent barrister’s task. And Mr Sunak may not want to use the highly-loaded term, even if he does have to pass judgement.

The prime minister and his team have been “contingency planning” for the report being damaging enough that Mr Raab will have to go, according to the Sunday Times. The report is likely to come in the week beginning 24 April.

Mr Sunak will be reluctant to lose a close ally whose strong support through the awkward first weeks of the leadership contest proved vital. To lose another minister just before the 4 May local elections would be far from ideal timing.

But the PM also knows he has little choice but to uphold his reputation as a stickler for ethical standards. Keeping Mr Raab, if the facts prove embarrassing, could create a far bigger scandal – allowing Labour to beat the government over the head with the “sleaze” stick.

The prime minister said last week he relies on an “inner conviction” that he is doing the right thing to get him through tricky moments at No 10. He will have to summon up all the conviction he can muster to make the right move on Mr Raab in the days ahead.