Can Rishi Sunak stay as chancellor after non-dom tax affair?

A mere fortnight or so ago, before the chancellor delivered his ill-starred spring statement, the Westminster gossip centred on Rishi Sunak’s evaporating hopes of becoming prime minister. With Partygate half-forgotten, plaudits from President Zelensky, and the cost of living crisis being blamed on No 11, Boris Johnson was enjoying an unlikely recovery.

Yet the game wasn’t over for Sunak. Hope springs eternal. Then he botched his mini-Budget, which was liked by no one, and added some PR blunders into the mix. Recuperating in the California sunshine at his second home, he must have wondered where it had all gone wrong. Then came The Independent’s scoop about his spectacularly rich wife’s non-dom status.

Suddenly, it isn’t Johnson who should be worried about his job so much as Sunak. How long can he last as chancellor of the exchequer? Can a man perceived to be a bit of a political fraud (being photographed filling up a Kia when he owns a Tesla and a Range Rover), with potential conflicts of interest, and shudderingly out of touch with the “just about managing” folk, really aspire to his position? His popularity, inside and outside the party, has collapsed.

Tellingly, Labour now feature him with Johnson in their propaganda, as the other ugly face of Tory hypocrisy. The days of the empathetic “Dishy Rishi”, “Whatever it takes”, and limitless Covid support are a distant memory. Now he’s the man who puts your taxes up while claiming to do the opposite.

Sunak doesn’t have any vocal critics on his own side – yet. Johnson tends not to sack ministers in a hurry, even those who are far less competent than Sunak. So he’s safe until the May local elections, and very possibly until the party conference in the autumn and beyond. After that, there are others Johnson might care to promote or reward, such as Ben Wallace.

Ironically, in the short to medium term, Sunak’s best interests lie no longer in replacing Johnson but in preserving him. If the Tories were finally to tire of Johnson’s law-breaking and arrogance, and needed to replace him, a new prime minister might want to appoint their own chancellor. Sunak’s best chance at the premiership was Partygate.

The upper reaches of government are now mostly populated by electoral liabilities. Credible rivals for No 10 are surprisingly scarce. There are the walking gaffe machines, such as Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and Priti Patel; the obviously over-promoted, such as Dominic Raab and George Eustice; then there is Liz Truss, who, by contrast, seems frightened to say anything original; and a bunch of middle-ranking members of the cabinet, who keep the show just about running – Javid, Gove and Zahawi.

The obvious winner from the last few months of decline is Wallace, who has rightly won admiration during the war in Ukraine. He seems the embodiment of some older values in public life, and might prove the antidote for the Tories’ malaise. He could well be the next chancellor of the exchequer, or prime minister. Not to mention that his wife, Liza, was a parliamentary researcher, and has no close connections with any billionaires. Ideal.