What do the Dominic Raab bullying allegations mean for Rishi Sunak and the government?

Dominic Raab has held eight ministerial roles in four government departments – the Ministry of Justice, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the Department for Exiting the European Union and the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities – since 2018. He has certainly moved about.

After two formal “bullying” complaints were filed last November, Raab decided to ask Rishi Sunak to investigate them, in his letter to the prime minister. After the departure of Nadhim Zahawi, attention has turned to the next minister who could leave the cabinet.

Beyond that investigation, Raab is facing fresh allegations, reported in The Independent, that he launched an “abusive attack” on a prominent anti-Brexit activist, Gina Miller. Raab has denied the claim.

What are the allegations?

The allegations around Raab, currently justice secretary as well as deputy prime minister, include that Raab lost his temper at work, chucked food across the room, and that staff were too scared to enter his room. He's also been called “abrasive and controlling” towards other aides. Numerous private secretaries and departmental permanent secretaries have given testimony to the inquiry, which is being led by Adam Tolley KC at Sunak’s request.

At Prime Minister's Questions this week, Keir Starmer, standing almost directly across the despatch box from Raab, baldly told Sunak: “At the last count, the deputy prime minister was facing 24 separate allegations of bullying. According to recent reports, some of the complainants were physically sick. One says that they were left suicidal. How would the prime minister feel if one of his friends or relatives was forced to work for a bully simply because the man at the top was too weak to do anything about it?”

Beyond the Tolley inquiry, Remain campaigner Gina Miller has said she was “bullied and demeaned” by the deputy prime minister after he called her “stupid” and “naive” during an “aggressive” encounter at the BBC in 2016. Raab has called the claims “baseless and malicious”.

What about the Tolley inquiry?

It seems to be busy, given the number of allegations. Tolley, an experienced employment barrister who has taken on government tribunal work before, was appointed on 25 November (there was at that time no independent ministerial adviser in place). According to the website of his chambers, Fountain Court: “With support from officials within the Cabinet Office, Adam has been tasked with finding the facts and providing a report to the prime minister who will then decide whether there has been a breach of the ministerial code and, if so, what the appropriate sanction should be.”

The Tolley report and a decision seem likely within weeks.

What could happen to Raab?

Raab could be asked to resign. Perhaps, as he did before, after resigning from the Department for Exiting the European Union, Raab could make a political comeback. However, it would need to be quick. Raab, a defiant Leaver, was a poor match for his highly pro-Remain constituency of Esher and Walton. It is now highly marginal after a stonking 18.5 per cent swing against him to the Liberal Democrats at the 2019 general election. Given the current polls, he’s certain to lose the seat; but he may seek a safer constituency instead. Or he may return to the law or elsewhere in the private sector. His leadership dreams (he stood in 2019) are probably over.

How does this affect the prime minister?

Rather like with the Zahawi tax affair, there is much focus on what Sunak knew about these allegations and when. It’s been noted that Sunak, for example in an interview with the BBC’s Chris Mason, is careful to say only that he was not aware of “formal allegations” when he restored Raab to his role of deputy prime minister (he had been sacked in that role, but kept on as justice secretary by Liz Truss). Many think that Sunak must have been aware of the gossip and “informal complaints” about Raab long before.

However, government sources insist that the prime minister was not “directly told” about the informal concerns, and that he was not advised against appointing Raab. It’s unlikely that the Tolley review, even if published, will shed much light on this particular issue, because it lies beyond the investigation’s terms of reference.

Did Sunak know Raab was accused of being a bully?

If a prime minister knows about certain sensitive issues concerning an MP, but appoints them anyway, it can reflect badly on their judgement. Though how true gossip might be is always subject to some doubt.

That Sunak had a shrewd idea about the human frailties of his colleagues is really the allegation that applies to some of his appointments to his cabinet last October. To put it crudely, the idea is that Sunak needed the support of figures on the right such as Raab, Suella Braverman and Zahawi to prevent a Boris Johnson comeback. By the same token, to shore up his authority in his divided and restless party, he has been reluctant to dismiss them. Hence the Labour charge that Sunak is “weak”.

Now, however, with Zahawi gone and perhaps soon Raab too, Sunak can demonstrate that he is his own man, and prepared to jettison figures who, in his judgement, do not live up to the ideals he declared himself committed to on his first day in No 10 – “integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level”.

Who could be deputy PM if Raab does go?

There doesn’t have to be one, and the role is constitutionally undefined. In the past, such figures have sometimes been powerful and influential (eg Michael Heseltine to John Major), but it has varied a good deal. In Sunak’s case, in such a factional party, it might be wise to leave the post in abeyance.