Could postal vote delays affect some general election results?

Britain’s failing public services have been something of a theme in the general election. Now, it seems an important part of the election process itself is failing, with questions over the slow delivery of ballot papers for postal voting in some areas.

It seems to have been a particular problem in Scotland. The SNP had already complained about the timing of this election because the final weeks of campaigning overlap with school holidays; reportedly, some families have now gone away without having received their ballot, leaving them now unable to vote. Similar delivery issues have been reported in the south of England.

The Electoral Commission warns that the postal vote system is facing “pressures”. Royal Mail insists there is “no backlog”; nevertheless, minister Kevin Hollinrake has suggested Royal Mail should have anticipated extra demand for postal votes during the summer holidays. Uttlesford District Council, in Essex, admits it sent out some postal votes late because of “human error”; it affects some voters in the North West Essex constituency, currently held by business and trade secretary, Kemi Badenoch. This may come to be significant.

There are no official figures, but it is clear the problem could run into the thousands. The Electoral Commission has promised to report on what happened nationally and why, but only after the election. As many as 90 constituencies might be affected, according to reports.

Given that about 32 million votes will be cast, and a decisive outcome highly likely, it is likely to be irrelevant at the national level. However, it is deeply wrong that any voter should be deprived of their democratic rights through administrative incompetence, either on the part of Royal Mail or local authorities. With responsibility for the running of 650 contests so diffused, and the Electoral Commission so underpowered, remedying such failures may prove frustratingly difficult.

In certain cases, the election might have to be re-run. For example, if Badenoch lost her seat by only a handful of votes, but there were hundreds of complaints about postal votes not arriving in time, then she and her supporters could petition for a special election court to be convened. Two judges then hear evidence and try the petition, and form a judgment, which is sent to the speaker of the House of Commons; if they both find sufficient fault with the administration of the election, it must be re-run. This happened in Winchester in 1997, when the losing Tory objected to losing to a Liberal Democrat after several recounts by only two votes; the election was re-run months later as a by-election, which the Liberal Democrat won with a 21,556 majority.

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But in Ms Badenoch’s example, even if she retained her seat at a by-election, she might miss out on the likely post-election Conservative leadership contest. It would also be unfair to her because it would be very clear who her principal rival was, and anti-Conservative tactical voters could act accordingly.

If it arrives between now and Thursday you still can take it to the polling station by 10pm to have it recorded. Alternatively, you can go to your local council office and request a replacement postal ballot pack in person, with some ID. The completed ballot paper can be returned immediately. This can be done by up to 5pm on polling day.

From fraud, yes. From postal delays, mostly. Outside Northern Ireland, abuse remains extremely rare in local elections and virtually unheard of in a parliamentary election. It’s been used as a “culture war” issue in Britain ever since Donald Trump claimed, with no evidence, that the 2020 presidential election was rigged. Every one of his court cases to prove his claims has failed. Postal votes remain essential for armed forces serving abroad, those with disabilities, anyone in hospital or otherwise unavailable. For everyone else, the system helps increase turnout and engagement.