Does Nicola Sturgeon’s arrest mean it’s all over for the SNP?

Nicola Sturgeon has been arrested, released without charge, and her party is having to deal with the consequences. The former SNP leader, who stood down in March after eight years in power, has been questioned by officers who have been investigating, over the last two years, what happened to more than £600,000 of donations given to the party by independence activists.

What’s next?

Something, and it’s unlikely to be a bonus for the SNP. The party has obvious financial difficulties, and for as long as the police investigations and any legal proceedings drag on, they will distract the party and its ministers in the Scottish government.

Even before the current scandal, indeed, the SNP was running into difficulties on a wide variety of policy issues – unsatisfactory public services, ferries, a drinks container recycling scheme, tactics for indyref2, and trans rights. On top of all that, the bitter and personalised leadership election after Sturgeon’s surprise resignation was a bit of a disaster, too. Humza Yousaf has an unhappy inheritance as the SNP’s third first minister after Sturgeon and Alex Salmond.

Will the question of independence ‘decouple’ from the SNP?

There’s reason to suppose it could. The independence question elicits a remarkably stable pattern of responses in the polls, while attitudes to the SNP can be much more variable.

Using the 2014 referendum question, Yes or No to Scotland as an independent country, in percentage share of the poll, the Yes vote is usually in the mid-to-low 40s, with No in the mid-to-high 40s, plus about 10 per cent don’t knows. Sometimes news events, such as Westminster’s refusal to approve the Gender Recognition Bill, and the Supreme Court decision on the legality of a unilateral independence referendum, can shoot the dial and tip the balance to Yes – but then the effect subsides.

In the latest polling, the SNP’s problems have chipped a bit off the Yes vote, but not that much. In other words, Scottish voters are perfectly well able to distinguish between the two – the SNP and independence – and weigh up exactly what means most to them at any given moment.

Given that the English-Tory-dominated UK government is about to be swept away, and the chances of a referendum under Labour seem minimal, supporting the SNP has less of a sense of urgency about it now, compared with, say, the tumultuous years leading up to the 2014 plebiscite and the anger after the Brexit vote in 2016 (in which Scotland voted firmly for Remain).

Harder-line independence supporters disillusioned with the SNP might transfer their allegiance to other pro-Yes parties, such as the Scottish Greens or Alex Salmond’s more militant Alba.

Does the SNP crisis set back the cause of independence?

Hard to see it being a positive but, as discussed, the cause is an ancient one, and it’s impossible to imagine it melting back into irrelevance. On the other hand, as successive SNP leaders have come to learn, there’s little point in holding a referendum just to lose it, and a sustained level of support of 60 per cent plus is needed to withstand any surge in pro-union sentiment in a volatile campaign. While not directly linked, the divisions and chaos in the SNP could dent the cause slightly, and in the wrong direction.

Who wins from a decline in SNP support?

Primarily the Labour Party, which was once even more dominant in Scotland than the SNP is today. The likely by-election in Rutherglen (caused by the suspension from the Commons of former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier) will be an early indicator of the scale of a Labour revival in its old central-belt strongholds. A dozen or more of the SNP’s Westminster seats could also fall to Labour at the general election, which will give the party a sliver of its old authority.

Funnily enough, the Tories could also benefit from a fall in the SNP vote in the 2024 general election – that is, if it is even bigger than the collapse in their own popularity. Scotland could be the one part of Britain where the Tories might make a couple of gains. The Lib Dems might also nick one. Much also depends on the effectiveness of tactical voting by pro-union constituents.

What happens if Labour wins the Westminster general election next year?

That depends on the parliamentary arithmetic. If there is a Labour government in a hung parliament or with a slender majority, then the SNP will undoubtedly use whatever leverage it might have to press for another independence referendum. On the other hand, Keir Starmer has repeatedly ruled out another vote, and the polling numbers don’t look like there’s an overwhelming clamour for national freedom. Yousaf, the SNP leader and first minister, has also ruled out sustaining the Tories in power.

If Starmer secures a landslide and wins dozens of seats from the SNP, then he can be even more relaxed about its demands – but he will be sensitive to Scotland’s needs for fear of losing the precious prize of Labour’s rebuilt political base. Of course, a Labour first minister in Bute House would be still more amenable...

Could Labour end up running the Scottish government next time?

The next elections for Holyrood are due in 2026, so a long way away. The SNP, despite its problems, remains the biggest party in Scottish politics – and, in both Westminster and Holyrood, voting SNP is a bit like giving a national pressure group more heft to win a fair share of resources for the country it represents. Although Labour could argue, more plausibly now, that a Labour first minister would receive a more sympathetic hearing from a Labour government in Westminster.

Either way, it’s a long shot. The SNP still enjoys a lead of about 7 per cent over Labour, albeit this is modest by recent historical standards. At the last Holyrood elections in 2021, Labour came third and was outpolled by the SNP by about two to one. So quite the swing, but present trajectories suggest it’s possible.

Will the SNP survive?

Certainly. It’s been going since 1936, and since devolution it has thrived. This is ironic, and rather against the expectations of those who promoted the cause of devolution, because it was supposed to relieve the pressures inevitably caused by periods of Tory rule, insulating the nation from the worst of Conservative excesses, and thus to inoculate Scotland against separatism.

The proportional electoral system was also designed to prevent one-party rule, but such has been the SNP’s strength that it’s been able to operate on its own (or as a dominant coalition partner) since 2007. It has a base at every level of government and retains its loyalty among voters. It’s not going away, but a period of recuperation in opposition seems increasingly likely.