The real numbers to watch in these local election results

Embarrassed politicians often dismiss opinion polls, arguing that the only thing that really matters is real votes in real ballot boxes. If true, the local elections in much of England are an excellent test of public opinion. This round of elections will be the first since Rishi Sunak became prime minister, the first since the chaos surrounding the successive falls of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, the first since Labour took a substantial lead in the opinion polls, and the first since the onset of the cost of living crisis.

How good a guide will these local election results be?

Pretty good: millions of real votes in real ballot boxes. However, there are some caveats. About a quarter of the votes will be going to various independent candidates, which is obviously not something that happens in general elections. There seems to have been some increase in independent political activity in recent years, partly a result of the post-Brexit realignment. Many might revert to the Tories in a normal general election, or cast a protest vote for Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, or the Greens – or even stay at home.

The Conservatives are defending the most council seats in these elections. A disproportionate number of these are in their traditional county heartlands, while some are in areas that until recently formed part of Labour’s red wall. The Lib Dems and Greens also tend to do better in local than in national elections. There are also always some major local issues that can distort normal voting patterns, such as the felling of trees in (Tory) Plymouth and (Labour) Sheffield.

Psephologists can iron out the patchy pattern of results and calculate a projected national vote share to reflect party support had the entire country been voting, as in a general election. It will give a fairly realistic picture of the relative strengths of Labour and the Conservatives.

What should we watch for?

Parties have already applied the usual pre-emptive spin about the results. Of these lines, the one that has gained the most currency is the Tory suggestion that losing 1,000 seats or fewer will count as a good result. However, the number of councillors in itself doesn’t say much about a general election. Early signs of a double-digit Labour lead in share of the vote will be highly reassuring for Labour. Much less, and Keir Starmer will come under some more criticism for not being charismatic or credible enough.

When will we know the results?

Some counting will take place overnight, but most happens on Friday. If the shifts in voting behaviour are large enough, the general picture will be apparent by early on Friday morning, but the full impact still won’t be known until later in the day.

Because the pattern of the contested seats is a little unusual – none in Wales, none in Scotland, none in London – it will take time for estimates to emerge of projected vote share. When they do, there will be at least two benchmarks.

First is how the parties fared against broadly the same seats at the last point in this local election cycle four years ago. In 2019, Theresa May was a troubled premier trying to win approval for her Brexit deal; Labour was led by Jeremy Corbyn and also relatively weak; and the Lib Dems were doing unusually well on an anti-Brexit ticket. If the Tories do even worse than in May 2019, when they took 28 per cent of the vote, it will be a disappointment for them this close to a general election.

Labour can expect to make gains both in seats and in its vote share (also 28 per cent in May 2019) but should be seeking a healthy double-digit lead if the party is to look forward with any confidence to 2024. For the Liberal Democrats, some modest progress reflecting Tory weakness would be satisfactory, but their May 2019 result (19 per cent) was a high point. For them, the pattern of their vote is even more important, as they seek to capitalise on tactical voting by Labour or Green voters in blue wall seats.

The second benchmark is how the main parties stack up against their showing at the December 2019 general election, when Johnson led the Conservatives to victory with 43 per cent of the vote against 32 per cent for Corbyn’s Labour. That situation could easily be exactly reversed this time round.

On the experiences of Blair (1997) and Cameron (2010) before they came to power, a 10 to 20 per cent Labour lead would suggest that Starmer can become PM in 2024.

What happens next?

A few months ago, it seemed possible that a dire result for the Conservatives might renew speculation about a comeback for Johnson. Since then, Sunak has seen a modest stabilisation of his party’s ratings, while his personal ratings are at least competitive with those of Starmer.

The Commons committee of privileges has been investigating whether Johnson lied to parliament over Partygate, and the outcome of that might mean he has to face a by-election in his own seat of Uxbridge. That wouldn’t be an ideal platform for a return to No 10. There’s a National Conservative Conference (“NatCon”) on 15 May, which will give the right of the party an opportunity to assess its options.