Why Keir Starmer’s Labour conference is going much better than you think

At first glance, the headlines from the Labour conference have not been good news for Keir Starmer. If the only maxim that matters is that divided parties lose votes, he would be in real trouble.

There was a row over Sir Keir’s plans to change the way the party chooses its leader in future, and a partial retreat that made him look weak. Angela Rayner’s refusal to apologise for branding some senior Tories “scum” will hardly help Labour regain the soft Tory voters it will need to regain power. Unusually, a shadow cabinet member, Andy McDonald, resigned in mid-conference, claiming the party is “more divided than ever”.

Yet appearances can be deceptive. Sir Keir’s allies are convinced the Brighton conference is a landmark moment for the party and him personally. “This is a turning point,” one aide said.

Team Starmer insists it always knew there would be some “noises off”; that happens at conference. But they are relieved Labour has answered the charge it is a policy-free zone by making announcements on climate finance, workers’ rights, housing, business rates and crime.

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, won a warm reception from delegates even though she coupled her £28bn-a-year pledge on climate investment with a warning of “tough choices” ahead to keep public spending under control. Starmer loyalists saw the response in the hall as a sign the party is shifting to the centre and a recognition it must regain its economic credibility.

They believe the significance of the changes to Labour rules Sir Keir pushed through has been underestimated. They are confident the reforms will keep the left in check, making it harder for a left-winger to run for the leadership and allowing Labour MPs to focus on the voters in the run-up to a general election rather than fighting off deselection threats from local activists. Despite not securing his desired electoral college to choose the leader, allies say Sir Keir showed mental strength and courage to secure the other changes.

The left can still make noise but it is on the defensive. Sir Keir is moving away from the Corbyn agenda on the economy and public ownership. Mr McDonald’s departure sent the same signal, a plus for Sir Keir despite the initial turbulence. His allies believe the left’s marginalisation will allow former Labour voters to “come home”.

Sir Keir’s problem is that his doubters are not confined to his left-wing critics. In his closing speech to the conference on Wednesday, he needs to win round mainstream figures who, unlike the left, want him to succeed. If he can do that, he will be in a stronger position to attack a government struggling with a crisis over petrol supplies, energy prices and the cost of living.