Will Labour expand the vote to millions of EU citizens?

The Conservatives have accused Sir Keir Starmer of a dastardly plot to “rig” elections while simultaneously laying the groundwork to reverse Brexit at a second referendum.

It would be quite the feat. What policy could possibly be so devious as to engineer permanent Labour majorities and take Britain back into the EU? Labour’s top team is considering a plan for a radical expansion of the franchise so potentially millions of EU citizens would be eligible to vote in general elections.

Frontbencher Jonathan Reynolds all but confirmed stories about the bold move on Sunday – admitting it was “something we will look at” and arguing “we should always be seeking to involve as many people as possible in our democracy”. Although Reynolds – and Starmer’s team – insist that it is not yet policy, serious discussions about constitutional reform in the Labour manifesto are being held now so the platform is ready to go for autumn conference season.

The idea of Labour giving EU citizens a general vote is not entirely new. Sir Keir pledged “full voting rights for EU nationals” during the Labour leadership campaign in 2020. The promise to lower the voting age to 16, also thought to be under consideration, was in the last Labour manifesto.

But Starmer has pledged quite a few things he has since rowed back from without too much fuss. The discussions about expanding the franchise show Sir Keir’s steely determination to win elections. Extending voting rights is most likely to affect many of the 3.4 million EU nationals with “settled status” who live permanently in the UK. Another 2.6 million have been given “pre-settled” so could, in theory, become eligible in future.

However, it is understood that EU nationals would only be allowed to vote if they had paid tax in the UK for several years, with Labour officials still working through the details of how widespread they want to make the plan. While EU citizens who settled before January 2021 can vote in local elections in the UK, those who arrived since then can only vote if there are reciprocal arrangements with countries in the bloc.

Mr Reynolds hinted at the argument ahead about UK taxpayers from the EU getting fuller voting rights, when speaking to the BBC on Sunday. The shadow business secretary argued that “people who make a contribution to this country” should be involved in democratic processes.

Asked if the plan would be aimed at giving Labour more votes, Mr Reynolds told Sky News it shouldn’t be “looked at through a party political lens” – insisting there would be no “consideration of any partisan advantage”. Sky News host Sophy Ridge smirked at that one, adding: “Of course not.”

So how much trouble could the Tories be in? Elections guru Professor John Curtice thinks both EU citizens and young people are “more likely to be opposed to Brexit, and therefore less likely to vote for the Conservative Party”.

The vociferousness of the Tory reaction – with Conservative Pary chair Greg Hands fuming against Labour attempts to “rig” elections – suggests quiet terror inside the party. Mr Hands said Labour was “laying the groundwork” for a more pro-EU electorate and the staging of a second Brexit referendum. “This is an attempt to rig the electorate to rejoin the EU.”

The Tories will try to use this line of attack during the election expected in 2024, saying Starmer cannot be trusted to uphold any part of Brexit if he plans to change some of the fundamental rules around EU citizens’ rights in the UK. It may be convincing enough to spook some anti-immigration voters in Labour’s former heartlands. But it may also give Remain-voting types a reason to vote for Starmer’s party over the Liberal Democrats or the Greens.

Sir Keir has a delicate balancing act to perform. He will have to convince Tory-inclined swing voters he’s not doing anything very radical by offering those living in Britain and paying their taxes a chance to vote on their future.

But if the Labour leader can pull off an election victory and deliver on an expansion of the franchise, he may have something that can pull in more Labour votes for many years to come.