Is Labour really heading for power after these local election results?

As the local election results came flooding in, one thing became quickly clear –  it was a disaster for the Tories. The Conservatives shedded more than 1,000 local councillors, exceeding even the party’s own worst expectations.

But despite Sir Keir Starmer declaring Labour is heading for a majority at the next general election, the extent of his party’s success appeared less clear.

Labour MPs insist the party is “confident but not complacent”. Tory MPs claim Rishi Sunak is “getting the country back on track”. So is Labour really heading for government?

What do the experts say?

Polling guru Sir John Curtice said Labour’s performance did not put the party on course for a majority, but that it would win 312 seats based on the results.

Election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher declared Labour’s showing “good rather than spectacular”, predicting a hung parliament rather than an outright Labour majority.

But Electoral Calculus boss Martin Baxter said Labour’s performance in the local elections pointed to “quite a big majority” in a general election.

Labour are also keen to stress that the results were a local triumph. “People do vote differently locally and nationally,” shadow health secretary Wes Streeting said on Sunday. The party hopes voters will coalesce around the best candidate in their constituency to beat the Tories, which for many will mean voting Labour.

What led to these results?

It’s the economy, stupid. Halving inflation is the prime minister’s top priority for a reason. If voters head to the polls feeling poorer, the party in charge can expect a kicking. Rampant inflation has been eating away at household budgets since the world emerged from lockdowns and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Even chancellor Jeremy Hunt has described inflation as the “enemy” that is “making everyone poorer”.

Conservatives hope any easing of inflation ahead of the next election will translate into voters feeling better off and a boost for the Tories at the polls. Any sharp turnaround in the electorate’s finances would restore confidence in the government and make an outright Labour victory a lot more challenging.

But even with inflation cut in half, the cost of living will still be climbing faster than many people’s incomes – spelling trouble ahead for the Tories.

Coalition of chaos

Tory insiders will have listened with glee to forecasts of a hung parliament. On the campaign trail, Conservatives will likely cling to any suggestion Labour would need to be propped up by either the Liberal Democrats or the SNP.

Mr Streeting said Labour is “not even entertaining” the idea of a partnership with the Liberal Democrats. But any narrowing of the party’s poll lead will raise questions about whether Labour will need the party’s support to govern after an election.

This could see the Tories revive the claim that the choice for the public is between the Conservatives and a “coalition of chaos” between Labour and a rag-tag group of smaller parties. But since the country is on its fifth prime minister since David Cameron first uttered the line in 2015, it would be a less potent line of attack.

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn suggested the local election results mean his party could “pull the strings” of a minority government after the next election. Sir Keir has ruled out doing a deal with the SNP, but Conservatives will seize on Mr Flynn’s claim to suggest a vote for Labour poses a threat to the union.

The SNP (again)

SNP support is imploding after Nicola Sturgeon resigned shortly before a probe into missing party funds became a full police investigation. If the nationalists are able to turn their fortunes around, Labour’s path to victory will become more challenging and Mr Flynn’s claim may hold more weight.

But as the police probe continues, any further decline in the party’s fortunes represents a serious windfall for Labour.

Brexit, Boris and oh, Jeremy Corbyn

At the last general election in December 2019, Tories were buoyed by Brexit, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. Non-Tory Leave voters chose to side with the Tories who had promised to “get Brexit done”. Mr Johnson’s charisma helped the Conservatives break Labour’s red wall, winning a new coalition of supporters. And Mr Corbyn drove away Labour voters in their droves. At the next general election, none of these factors will be at play, representing another huge boost to Labour’s hopes.