If Donald Trump runs for president in 2024, what can we expect?

“Meet the new boss / Same as the old boss”

During Donald Trump’s address to the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) – where he has become a fixture in recent years – he played many of his greatest hits. He repeated his false claim that the 2020 election campaign was stolen from him by voter fraud, and that he is the legitimate leader of the US, while defending his assertion that Vladimir Putin is “smart” – not the first time he has expressed admiration for the Russian president’s way of handling politics.

He also called the people of Ukraine “brave”, but suggested that, if he himself was in charge of the US, Putin would respect him enough not to have invaded Ukraine. However, the bulk of the speech was aimed at current president Joe Biden and his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and restrictions – a “left wing tyranny” according to Trump. He also labelled the incumbents of the White House the “Biden crime family” – without any evidence, as usual – in the same vein as his attacks on his 2016 presidential election rival Hillary Clinton.

So far, so Trump. In his reality-show style, he also tried to keep his audience in suspense (another tactic from his time as president that often infuriated his allies). Trump dropped yet another hint that he would run again for the presidency in 2024, but offered no details, merely suggesting that his supporters would be “very happy” with his decision.

On this showing, we should expect little from a Trump 2024 run that we haven’t seen before: speeches like the one at CPAC, but generally at personal rallies, and controversy following in the former president’s wake. And that is what a significant proportion of Republican voters appear to want. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll found that 47 per cent of probable Republican voters chose Trump as the candidate they would be most likely to support. Florida governor Ron DeSantis – who has become the face of Republican resistance against Covid restrictions – was second, with 20 per cent.

Democrats will hope that they have learnt the lessons from 2016 – certainly on failing to adequately estimate his popularity among voters – if Trump does run.