Who is likely to go head-to-head in the final two of the Conservative leadership campaign?

With just days to go before the four candidates in the Conservative leadership race are whittled down to just two by MPs, it appears all to play for.

Polls published during Tory leadership races are notoriously unreliable, not only because the membership is often hard to pin down, but also because every round of voting so far has been among MPs.

But in the lead-up to the next round of voting, it’s clear some candidates have had a better few weeks than others. We take a look at the highs and lows of their campaigns over the last two weeks, and where that leaves them ahead of the next ballot on Tuesday, with the results expected on Wednesday.

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Kemi Badenoch has long been seen as a frontrunner among the party membership, but she had a difficult few days at the Tory conference, with missteps on maternity pay and her suggestion some civil servants “should be in prison”.

Unfortunately for Badenoch, this was reflected in the polls. A survey from YouGov, published last week, suggested rival Robert Jenrick is closing in on her, sitting just four points behind the former business secretary.

But, despite the loss of momentum, she managed to put her campaign back on track with a culture-war-heavy speech to party members on the final day of the conference. Since then, she has also managed to bag a number of high-profile endorsements, with former Brexit secretary David Davis and Florida governor Ron DeSantis both coming out to support her.

It’s clear that Badenoch is pulling out all the stops to prove to MPs she can be trusted with the party’s leadership and ensure she makes it into the final two.

James Cleverly had a belter at this year’s Tory conference. His main stage speech on the final day took him from being seen as an underdog to a frontrunner. His pitch to members, which received the loudest cheers in the hall, saw him flaunt his conservative credentials and outline what he would do to win back power for the battered Tory Party.

The former home secretary, who was lagging behind in the polls, may have stormed ahead to second place in members’ first preferences just days before the next round of voting.

In a hypothetical head-to-head situation, conducted by grassroots Tory website Conservative Home, Cleverly is now, for the first time, forecast to defeat frontrunner Robert Jenrick. But in order for this polling of party members to become a reality, MPs need to be significantly persuaded that Cleverly is the right horse to back in the final ballot.

Robert Jenrick, on the other hand, fell behind after a lacklustre performance at the party’s conference. While he has previously been seen as a favourite to succeed Rishi Sunak, he saw his lead diminish after his pitch to members fell flat and he faced criticism for his claim that British special forces are “killing rather than capturing terrorists”.

The latest polling from Conservative Home suggests Jenrick’s chances of making the final two are lower than they were before the conference. But he still has a large number of MPs in his corner, and those are the only votes that matter in the next round of voting. While some MPs will be looking at the feeling of the membership to influence their votes at the next backing, there is still a high chance Jenrick could defy the polls.

Tom Tugendhat’s campaign has largely been defined by criticism of other candidates: from the row over Cleverly’s involvement in the Chagos Islands’ deal to Jenrick’s special forces claim.

While his campaign at the Tory conference was energetic, with innovative merch and a visibly large team that appeared to be almost everywhere, his enthusiasm did not appear to be enough to win over the party.

After what was widely seen to be a lacklustre performance on the main stage, with the leadership contender himself awkwardly admitting, “My friends I get it, you have had enough and so have I,” Tugendhat continues to significantly lag behind in the polls and does not appear to be making any further headway with MPs.