How much does US pressure over Brexit hurt Boris Johnson?

Boris Johnson’s threat to break international law by overriding part of his EU withdrawal agreement has not only provoked a backlash from Conservative MPs and Brussels. It now risks a diplomatic dispute with the US Congress.

Four congressmen have dispatched a strongly-worded letter to the prime minister urging him to scrap his controversial plan to take powers to overturn the Northern Ireland protocol designed to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.

Democratic congressmen Eliot Engel, Richard Neal and Bill Keating, who all chair committees in the House of Representatives, and Republican  Peter King asked him to  “abandon any and all legally questionable and unfair efforts to flout the Northern Ireland protocol of the withdrawal agreement and look to ensure that Brexit negotiations do not undermine the decades of progress to bring peace to Northern Ireland”.

The sting in the tail made clear the consequences could extend way beyond a  clash with Washington’s powerful Irish lobby. The letter warned that safeguarding the Good Friday Agreement was “inextricably linked”  to a possible trade deal between the US and UK – a big prize long coveted by Brexiteers.  The opinion of Congress matters because it would have to approve such an agreement.  

Talks between London and Washington have stalled over US agricultural products such as chlorinated chicken, and the UK has abandoned hopes of a deal before November’s US presidential election.  

Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary,  is trying to calm American nerves during a visit to Washington. He is meeting Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic speaker of the House of Representatives, who warned last week  there would be “absolutely no chance” of a  trade agreement if Brexit undermined the Good Friday Agreement. 

Mr Raab’s message is that taking reserve powers in the event of no EU trade deal is precautionary and proportionate. Responding to the letter, Downing Street insisted the move would make sure the Good Friday Agreement ”is upheld in all circumstances and harmful defaults do not inadvertently come into play which could jeopardise the huge gains of the peace process“.  

Mr Johnson is searching for a compromise with his rebellious MPs and might yet promise he would never use the proposed powers if progress is made towards an EU deal. But as far as the US Congress is concerned, the damage has already been done.