Why Boris Johnson will ignore Elton John and break his Brexit promise to touring musicians

On the face of it, an alliance of Elton John, Simon Rattle, members of Oasis, Queen and The Who, and so many other stars, should be making No 10 very nervous in the row over the horror of post-Brexit touring permits.

After all, this is the government that keeps caving in to potshots from the footballer Marcus Rashford – so it will do the same when the giants of the music scene protest, won’t it?

Midge Ure, the Ultravox frontman, even warned the UK is heading “back to the 1970s” – a phrase to make any government shudder – when “touring in Europe was a nightmare”.

Yet, despite the U-turn that eventually gave deprived children their free school meals, it seems clear there will be no encore to calm the fury of Sir Elton and the rest.

Oliver Dowden, the culture secretary, even told big-name stars to use their fame to push for the new paperwork to be lifted – laying bare that he has washed his hands of the job – so why is the government digging in?

The first answer is that ministers have successfully conjured up enough smoke to turn the controversy into a “he says, she says” row, despite it being London that threw out a possible deal.

Some music organisations are furious at the phony claims made to argue that a doable Brussels offer was never on the table – but, crucially, they appear to have been bought by most Tory MPs.

Most important, ministers have made it an issue of ending free movement of EU citizens, the totemic achievement of Brexit for its supporters, even though it is nothing of sort.

In fact, permits would go only to a carved-out list of “paid activities”, including music tours – rather than opening the doors to all EU citizens, as claimed – but the detail is complex enough to confuse.

Furthermore, remember Boris Johnson threw his one-time allies in the Democratic Unionist Party under a bus to strike his withdrawal deal – and did the same to fishermen for the trade agreement.

Given that record, it is hardly surprising that the promise to allow touring to continue without visas and permits can now also be torched.

Yes, the cost to the UK music industry may be huge – but it will be easily swamped by the many tens of billions to be lost from Brexit.