Boris Johnson’s cabinet is becoming increasingly isolated on the universal credit cut

According to an internal government analysis, reported this week, the imminent cut to universal credit – ending the £20 uplift introduced in March 2020 – will have a “catastrophic” impact.

“It could be the real disaster of the autumn,” a Whitehall official told the Financial Times, suggesting that homelessness and food bank use will soar as the support is withdrawn.

For anyone that has been following the debate over universal credit closely, perhaps this warning will not come as a surprise: for months, anti-poverty campaigners and experts have been sounding the alarm with similar warnings to ministers.

Earlier this summer, Dame Louise Casey, a former homelessness adviser to the prime minister, told The Independent the decision to remove the uplift will lead to an increased reliance on food banks this winter.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has consistently warned against ending the uplift, saying last month more than one in three families and their children will be hit with the “biggest overnight cut in benefit since the Second World War”.

Pressure at Westminster has also been mounting. In the last few months, the devolved governments of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales have urged the government to rethink.

Six former Conservative work and pensions secretaries, including one former leader, have called for the uplift to made permanent. Increasing numbers of backbench Tory MPs are growing agitated as constituents write to them. Manchester United football star Marcus Rashford, a campaigner against child food poverty, urged ministers to keep the £20 uplift.

And according to reports, Therese Coffey, the cabinet minister responsible for the universal credit system as work and pensions secretary, is privately concerned about the benefit going back to pre-pandemic levels.

Despite the warnings and the internal analysis, Boris Johnson and the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, are sticking by the decision to remove the uplift – worth over £1,000 a year for some families – in a few weeks time, repeatedly saying they want to focus support on working people (despite a considerable percentage of people on universal credit being in-work).

Just this week, the prime minister’s official spokesperson told reporters a final decision had been made, adding: “The uplift to UC was always temporary to support people through the toughest stage of the pandemic.”

Next week, Labour will force a Commons vote on the issue. While it will be non-binding on the government, it will also be the first dedicated debate on the issue since the support was extended in the spring. Conservative MPs who have been inundated with calls will be able to express their concerns to ministers.

How many MPs stand up to defend the decision remains to be seen, but it will certainly give No 10 a real sense of just how isolated the government has become on the decision to end the uplift this autumn.