Why Boris Johnson will struggle to save the union

Reports of Boris Johnson’s toxicity in Scotland may be exaggerated, but his Brexit history will make it harder for him, or any government led by him, to make the case to save the union.  

Firstly, though, the matter of his personal brand cannot be avoided.  

Famously, during the Tory leadership campaign a group of Scottish Tory MPs launched an “anyone-but-Boris” campaign dubbed “Operation Arse”. Why Operation Arse, you ask? Well, it was so that it was immediately obvious who they were talking about, apparently.  

Supporters of Boris north of the border say the antagonism towards him is overplayed. He cuts through and appeals to different groups in much the same way he does south of the border, they insist.  

Whatever Scots personally feel about the prime minister his role in the Brexit campaign causes real problems for his attempts to save the union, though not perhaps for the reasons you might think.  

Yes, overall Scots voted to remain, but many did back Brexit including around an estimated quarter of SNP voters

But Mr Johnson’s, and his colleague Michael Gove’s, support for the Brexit campaign now risks forcing their government into a series of political contortions.  

Six years, during the last independence referendum, Scots were told they had to stay in the UK in order to remain in the EU.  

What would the argument be this time around? That Scotland has to remain in the UK to stay out of the EU?  

Other, similar head-scratching arguments will have to be made. Yes, it was right to leave the EU’s single market, but it would be wrong to want to leave the UK’s single market?  

Yes, we have had enough of experts. But wait, listen to these experts extolling the virtue of the UK.  

Ironically, the Vote Leave campaigned learned a lot from the last independence referendum.  

In the early part of the battle a senior member of the campaign privately admitted they would never produce a white paper setting out their vision for a post-Brexit Britain, like the SNP had on independence. “Too easy to criticise,” he said.  

But the lessons don’t seem to flow so easily in the opposite direction.  

Will Boris Johnson’s career be defined by two referendums – one which he famously won and another which he (or one of his successors) loses?