How will Boris Johnson escape from the mess that is the Afghan refugee crisis?

If Boris Johnson is to escape from the mess that is the Afghan refugee crisis, he will require, skill, judgement, goodwill and, that commodity in increasingly short supply for the prime minister, luck.

For Johnson, an unfortunate “narrative”, as the spin doctors term it, has been developing. Rightly or wrongly, a succession of crises and fiascos has created an image of serial incompetence, hypocrisy and aimlessness. Electorally, the mixed success in the round of elections in May was tempered by the loss of the parliamentary seat of Chesham and Amersham, and the failure to win Batley and Spen. The much-praised vaccine rollout has been completed, but there’s been no great bounce or bounce back since “freedom day”. Ministers have been distinguished by their poor judgement and worse – Matt Hancock, Gavin Williamson and now Dominic Raab have shown themselves to be not up to the job, which reflects badly on Johnson. Michael Gove has gone quiet, and Rishi Sunak, who’s done well as Johnson has flailed around, faces much tougher times ahead, hiking taxes and cutting spending.

Gaffe-wise, the prime minister has managed to upset some voters in the former red wall seats with some flippant comments about pit closures and Mrs Thatcher. His much-vaunted levelling up speech broke new ground in waffling. His statement to the House of Commons on Afghanistan had an appropriately desperate air to it, as if he couldn’t wait to get to the airport to escape his tormentors, including plenty in his own party. He’s been criticised by watchdogs and parliamentary committees. He looks dodgy, and perhaps the old schtick of the charming rogue is fading. So what to do?

Luckily, parliament has returned to its recess, many of the political journalists have taken the opportunity to take a break, and the heat is off for now. Dominic Raab has probably managed to get away with his own dereliction of duty, which handily distracted from Johnson’s failures, and the Taliban have obliged the prime minister by not invading the airport or shooting down planes. A small degree of order is returning to the evacuation, shameful as it has been. The media caravan has moved on. But it has not moved that far…

The principal way that Boris Johnson can fix his most immediate problem, the Afghan refugee crisis, is to let them in. This is actually far easier than it might be in normal conditions, when party and public view any migrants with the utmost suspicion. The loyalty of Afghans working for British entities – the military, charities, contractors – has commended them to the public. Johnson should not face the usual Farageist backlash provided he admits as many as he can as quickly as possible; he does not want any more tragic tales of British betrayal upsetting his backbenches or the media.

After that comes the opportunity of a ministerial reshuffle, perhaps in the time for the new parliamentary term. His front bench does need some refurbishment, and, after the purges of 2019, Johnson has been keen to promote younger talents. He should have enough to make his cabinet look a bit fresher. Then comes the Conservative Party conference. Although the prime minister isn’t as popular as he was, mostly because of his self-indulgent ways, he will still find a warm welcome when he gets up to make his usual knockabout speech. This time, though, approaching mid-term, they’ll be looking for more meat, more sense of purpose, for something they can sell on the doorstep that adds meaning to the “build back better”, “levelling up” and “Global Britain” slogans. Post-Brexit and post-Covid, the government needs to regain momentum and some idea of what it is there for – and why Johnson is the man to lead Britain in the 2020s. He has few credible rivals – Sunak, Liz Truss and Jeremy Hunt the best of a lacklustre bunch – but that may not be enough to save him.

Sometimes it’s said that he’s not enjoying the job, and can’t wait to earn megabucks as an ex-premier, and that his heart isn’t in it since Covid robbed his Treasury of funds for his pet projects. That said, his ratings and his party’s lead over Labour look surprisingly healthy, all things considered. Yet it may not last. The Johnson government has just begun to give off that whiff of decay, the narrative of failure, that did so much to destroy the governments of John Major and Gordon Brown. Johnson must know that it can’t go on like this.