Can Boris Johnson escape punishment at Partygate inquiry?

Boris Johnson is addicted to getting himself into trouble. The former Tory leader has made a strange habit of tripping up and falling into avoidable scandals throughout his political career.

He even appeared to self-diagnose the addiction in his 2004 novel Seventy-Two Virgins, which featured a charming, if somewhat disheveled chancer (guess who?) as its Tory MP hero. “There was something prurient about the way he wanted to read about his own destruction,” the author wrote.

If Johnson is not careful on Wednesday, he could be reading about his own destruction in Thursday’s newspapers. The former prime minister is up against it as he prepares for his public grilling at the hands of the privileges committee.

The eight MPs on the cross-party committee – who are trying to establish whether Mr Johnson lied to parliament about his knowledge of rule-breaking events at No 10 – have made it pretty clear they believe he is on a very sticky wicket.

They released a 20-page interim report earlier this month, which said it would have been “obvious” to Mr Johnson that events he personally attended broke Covid rules.

Team Johnson fired back with a “bombshell” on Sunday, claiming to have “detailed and compelling” evidence showing that he “did not knowingly mislead” the Commons when he claimed all events followed the rules.

Mr Johnson’s 50-page dossier will point to a series of WhatsApp messages from civil servants and members of his team showing he had relied upon their advice – including advice that gatherings were covered by the “workplace exemption” in the lockdown rules.

However, the committee has revealed MPs found that a former No 10 communications chief admitted there was a “great gaping hole” in Mr Johnson’s account, saying he was “not sure” that the workplace exemption excuse worked.

The committee also found that Mr Johnson’s key claim – that all rules were followed – came from a special adviser and was not “a general assurance [that] no guidance or rules were broken”.

MPs are also expected to grill Mr Johnson on the one gathering that Sue Gray didn’t investigate, the so-called “Abba party” on 13 November 2020 after Dominic Cummings was forced out.

Battling to save himself, the former PM is also expected to attack the committee and set out why the process should be terminated in his written evidence. But attacking the inquiry during the hearing would be a high-risk strategy that could backfire.

Sir Bob Neill and other senior Tories have urged him to “be straight and serious for once”, tell the truth and cooperate with the questioning. If he chooses to be defensive and obstructive, it may go down very badly with the four Tory MPs on the committee – and the wider parliamentary party and Tory MPs who will ultimately decide his fate.

If he is found to have lied to parliament, MPs would have to vote on the sanction. If a suspension of at least 10 days is imposed, Mr Johnson could face a recall petition from his constituents that could trigger a by-election.

Mr Johnson will use all his powers of persuasion to convince an apparently sceptical committee that he was given solid and consistent advice on the legality of gatherings, and expressed no doubt to colleagues about the breaching of Covid rules.

He has the advantage of four Tory MPs on the committee of eight, but they have resisted pressure from Johnson allies to quit the “kangaroo court”.

If he does manage to avoid the kind of censure that could lead to a by-election, there is still the court of public opinion in Uxbridge and South Ruislip to worry about as he prepares for a tough re-election fight in 2024.

Mr Johnson is allowed to consult his lawyer during the hearing. It may have the effect of making him look like Michael Corleone during the trial scene in The Godfather II – the corrupt gangster putting his hand over the microphone as he continually leans over to consult his consigliere.

What will his constituents make of Wednesday’s performance by their local Don? If he manages to avoid punishment now, he may only be delaying his demise on election night. With Mr Johnson, however, you can never rule out a blockbuster sequel to his parliamentary career.