Could Boris Johnson really come back as London mayor?

Following his shock resignation as an MP, and the devastating report by the Commons Committee of Privileges, speculation about Boris Johnson’s future has been swirling around Westminster and beyond. One of the more intriguing rumours is that Johnson may make some sort of bid for the London mayoralty, a post he held from 2008 to 2016. But is it any more than a pipe dream for the Boris cultists?

Where are these rumours coming from?

Guto Harri, former press officer for Johnson and rewarded with a CBE in the honours list, has been talking openly about the prospect: “London needs a powerful advocate with the profile, ambition, credibility and character to fight its corner and champion its cause.” However, Will Walden, Mr Johnson’s former communications director under Johnson at London City Hall, has told The Independent: “Boris only runs for things if he knows he can win. Running might well split the Tory vote but running doesn’t equal winning. I expect if there’s even a shred of truth in this then it’s more about limelight-hogging than reality. The last time I looked, Boris was still a Conservative. I’m not sure Tory members in London will look kindly on him running against their chosen candidate.”

What’s the timetable?

The election will be in May next year, which may well also be when the general election is held. Boris fans would be delighted to Rishi Sunak crash nationally, while Johnson steals a win in London.

Although Johnson has missed the internal deadline to put his name forward, there’s still time for him to mobilise support, either to gatecrash the current contest to be the official Conservative candidate, or to launch an audacious bid of his own.

Could Johnson win as a Conservative candidate?

He would need to be adopted as the official candidate, and the deadline for the shortlist has indeed already passed; the list comprises Susan Hall, Mozammel Hossain and Daniel Korski. Mr Johnson’s former adviser and ally Samuel Kasumu missed out, amid speculation he was blocked for his links to the ex-PM. Although all three are virtually unknown and lack Johnson’s campaigning gifts, Johnson would still have to try and overcome the resistance of a hostile party hierarchy to get himself on the ballot to be the official runner. That would be virtually impossible.

However, if it came to pass then Johnson has some things in his favour. Incumbent mayor Sadiq Khan lacks strong support in the outer London boroughs where his new Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) and other congestion charges are quite unpopular. Arguably, his record on London’s finances and crime could also be better. Johnson’s government also changed the election system to first past the post, so Khan will no longer be able to rely on the second preferences of Green and Liberal Democrat voters. Last time round, in 2021, Khan only won by five percentage points over his Tory rival, Shaun Bailey, who wasn’t a strong campaigner. So it wouldn’t take much of a swing to see Johnson back in charge. Against that, Johnson (like Brexit) is even more hated in London than in the rest of the country.

What about standing as an independent?

He’s free to run and it’s possible that he’d be able to assemble some sort of party organisation. He has, after all, been amassing a war chest to find his still lively political ambitions, he’s got immediate recognition (for good and ill), and many of the Tory members adore him. Much of the media would also be onside. Otherwise, similar electoral factors apply to an independent run as much as one for the party, but, given his current rumblings about policy, it would be as a much more pro-Brexit, socially conservative, anti-migration, tax-cutting candidate than he was in 2008, and that agenda is ill-suited to diverse, multicultural London trying to remain the pre-eminent financial centre in Europe. This would be even more the case if he fell in with Nigel Farage and Reform UK, both of whom are deeply unpopular in the modern capital city.

Didn’t Ken Livingstone make a comeback and win as an independent?

Yes, and it’s an uncanny precedent. In 2000, New Labour under Tony Blair was determined not to allow Livingstone to run as an official Labour candidate for the then-new post of executive Mayor of London (albeit with minimal actual powers). Livingstone had been leader of the old Greater London Council from 1981 until its abolition under Mrs Thatcher in 1986 (she couldn’t get rid of him any other way). Even though Blair feared the taint of the GLC’s “loony left” reputation, Livingstone, by then an MP, was still very popular among the membership. So Blair forced cabinet minister Frank Dobson to run for Labour and he went down badly, trounced by Livingstone as an independent. Four years later, Livingstone looked like winning again and he was quietly readmitted to the party. This kind of populist insurgency and return is what Johnson might want to fantasise about, if not repeat.

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Will he do it?

It feels more like a flight of fancy than anything else. Aside from his first foray into politics standing in a hopeless Labour seat in south Wales in 1997, Johnson is only in it to win it these days. It’s fair to say he took a bit of a gamble in 2008 when Livingstone was favourite, but at that earlier stage in his career, with his rival David Cameron safely installed as party leader, it was a calculated risk that paid off handsomely. Now he has rather more to lose than gain from running for a job he probably doesn’t want or need to do. There’s only one job he really wants (back). In the words of Johnson fanboy David Campbell Bannerman, “I don’t buy this. He’s been there, done mayor twice, and frankly we Conservatives want him back as leader before the election to save the Tory Party from a fate worse than 1997.”