Will the success of the vaccine rollout save Boris Johnson?

While there may be no such thing as a miracle cure for political unpopularity, Boris Johnson may have discovered the nearest thing to it – the Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine. Like the Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax products also coming on stream, their arrival has boosted Johnson’s personal poll ratings and those of his party. For the first time in months, the prime minister and the Conservatives are starting to regain their poll leads, albeit by slim margins, over Sir Keir Starmer and Labour.  

It certainly makes a change for the government, and the recent spat with the European Union over the supply of the proudly British Oxford-AstraZeneca jab added a patriotic, Brexit quality to the generally good news about the vaccine rollout. (Notwithstanding the fact that all vaccines have complex multinational supply chains and rely on global scientific collaboration). Even the most ardent Remainer has had to concede that the EU has recently misjudged things, and managed to make the British seem paragons of public health, even as Britain gained the unwelcome distinction of suffering the worst Covid death rate in Europe. 

If, as Tony Blair says, Labour “should” be 20 points ahead in the polls, the fact that it is roughly neck and neck, given the margin of error, at about 40 per cent, is cause for concern. It is possible that as the vaccine programme exceeds expectations and the memories of Dominic Cummings and the disastrous decisions of the last year fade, then the Conservatives lead could stretch further as the big round of elections across the UK arrive in May. The hard work and brilliance of the scientists and the NHS have rubbed off on the popularity of the government, galling as that may be to some.

The RNA of this political elixir is readily mapped outside the lab. While the public is deeply unimpressed by the government’s record on travel restrictions, test and trace and, worst of all, lockdown decisions, the financial support schemes and vaccination programme are identified as achievements – something of a bonus for Rishi Sunak and Nadhim Zahawi, the ministers mainly responsible for those positive vibes. The flow of good news on the vaccines is boosting the government’s immunity to attacks by the opposition, and it is increasing in line with the volume of phials reaching GP surgeries and vaccination hubs.  

In truth, the main blow to the personal fortunes of the prime minister was his decision to preserve, protect and defend the position of his chief adviser last summer, after the revelations about his trip to Durham. Now that Cummings has departed Downing Street he will figure rather less in the news coverage, and, while an unforgettable personality, he will seem less relevant to the country’s future as time goes on.  

Johnson also seems well-placed to resist attacks in his political health from the political right. The core support of older Conservative voters are not, for understandable reasons, keen on lifting lockdowns as the Farage’s Reform party and his critics in the Conservatives’ Covid Recovery Group demand; with luck, the whole question of lockdowns will be redundant by the time of the Scottish, London and other elections on 6 May.  

Throughout the crisis, with the important exception of the Cummings scandal, the government’s poll ratings held up surprisingly well. Britain, after all, has suffered the sharpest recession in 300 years and the worst death toll, proportionately, in Europe, and yet the Conservatives would probably win an election held tomorrow (with boundary changes acting as a booster dose for the Tories in due course). 

People may have been inclined to give ministers the benefit of the doubt, and regarded the pandemic as something every country has had to face and suffered from. Now, the visible impact of the vaccine, made possible by early and risky decisions taken on research last year, is shifting opinion again, and in the right direction from a Tory point of view. There is plenty that can change – new variants, another wave, a deep recession – but for now Johnson has had his political jab, and he’s feeling much better for it.